Will Project Hail Mary win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 9% across 6 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
9%
6 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$902
6 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2027
508 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
6 clusters across 6 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will The Odyssey win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars
Will The Odyssey win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars?: The Odyssey
KXOSCARASPLAY-27-ODY
Cluster 2
Will The Black Ball win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars
Will The Black Ball win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars?: The Black Ball
KXOSCARASPLAY-27-BLA
Cluster 3
Will The Invite win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars
Will The Invite win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars?: The Invite
KXOSCARASPLAY-27-INV
Cluster 4
Will Project Hail Mary win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars
Will Project Hail Mary win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars?: Project Hail Mary
KXOSCARASPLAY-27-PRO
Cluster 5
Will The Adventures of Cliff Booth win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars
Cluster 6
Will Toy Story 5 win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars
Will Toy Story 5 win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars?: Toy Story 5
KXOSCARASPLAY-27-TOY
Analysis
This 18% probability reflects the market's assessment that Project Hail Mary has an 18-in-100 chance of winning the Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar. The low probability suggests significant competition from other adapted screenplays. Key drivers include the film's critical reception, box office performance, and industry sentiment during awards season. The main uncertainty resolves at the 2027 Academy Awards ceremony, scheduled for March 2, 2027, when the Oscar for Best Adapted Screenplay will be announced. Between now and then, the probability may shift based on major film festival recognitions, critical reviews, industry guild award nominations (such as the Writers Guild Awards in February 2027), and public campaigning by the studio.
- ›Project Hail Mary's screenplay adaptation quality and how closely it adheres to or diverges from Andy Weir's source material
- ›Competitive field strength: whether other adapted screenplays generate stronger critical consensus or industry support
- ›Guild award performance: nominations and wins at Writers Guild Awards or similar industry bodies before the Oscars
- ›Box office and cultural impact: whether the film maintains audience and critic enthusiasm through awards season
- ›Studio campaign intensity: resources and visibility devoted to promoting the screenplay adaptation relative to competitors
What moved the line
- Aug 9The Black Ball↑13pp11→24¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 7The Odyssey↓5pp42→37¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 8The Black Ball↑5pp6→11¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 8The Odyssey↓4pp37→33¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 8The Invite↓3pp11→8¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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