Will Nuisance Bear win Best Documentary Feature Film at the Oscars

30-day trend

Analysis

This reflects the probability that Nuisance Bear will win the Academy Award for Best Documentary Feature Film at the next Oscars ceremony. With a 4% probability, the market is pricing this as a long-shot outcome. The current assessment likely reflects limited early buzz or critical recognition compared to other documentary contenders. Documentary feature odds are typically driven by festival circuit performance, critical reception, streaming platform backing, and industry voting patterns among Academy members. The main catalyst will be the official Oscar nominations announcement, which will immediately clarify whether Nuisance Bear has secured a nomination and how it ranks against competing films. The nomination itself would substantially shift expectations about winning chances.

• ›The film's performance at major documentary festivals (Sundance, IDFA, Hot Docs, Sheffield Doc/Fest) will influence critic and Academy voter awareness
• ›Current industry trade publications and major awards prediction outlets show minimal coverage or predictions favoring this film as a frontrunner
• ›Streaming platform backing and theatrical release strategy significantly impact visibility and voting turnout within the Academy's documentary branch
• ›The film must first receive a nomination to have realistic winning odds; non-nominated films carry negligible chances regardless of quality
• ›Competitive field strength matters—the probability reflects assumptions about other contending documentaries and their relative strength rather than absolute assessment of this film's merits

What moved the line

• Aug 7American Doctor↑5pp4→9¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 8Once Upon a Time in Harlem↑5pp6→11¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds