Will The Odyssey win Best Picture at the Oscars
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 11% across 6 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
11%
6 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$4K
6 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2027
601 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
6 clusters across 6 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Project Hail Mary win Best Picture at the Oscars
Will Project Hail Mary win Best Picture at the Oscars?: Project Hail Mary
KXOSCARPIC-27-PRO
Cluster 2
Will Dune: Part Three win Best Picture at the Oscars
Will Dune: Part Three win Best Picture at the Oscars?: Dune: Part Three
KXOSCARPIC-27-DUN
Cluster 3
Will The Odyssey win Best Picture at the Oscars
Will The Odyssey win Best Picture at the Oscars?: The Odyssey
KXOSCARPIC-27-ODY
Cluster 4
Will Digger win Best Picture at the Oscars
Will Digger win Best Picture at the Oscars?: Digger
KXOSCARPIC-27-DIG
Cluster 5
Will Wild Horse Nine win Best Picture at the Oscars
Will Wild Horse Nine win Best Picture at the Oscars?: Wild Horse Nine
KXOSCARPIC-27-WIL
Cluster 6
Will The Social Reckoning win Best Picture at the Oscars
Will The Social Reckoning win Best Picture at the Oscars?: The Social Reckoning
KXOSCARPIC-27-SOC
Analysis
The Odyssey has a 9% implied probability of winning Best Picture at the 2029 Academy Awards, meaning prediction markets assign roughly a 1-in-11 chance the film will claim cinema's highest honor. This low probability reflects either skepticism about the film's commercial or critical performance, or confidence in competing titles. The metric would shift based on box office returns, critical reception upon release, guild award nominations (Golden Globes, SAG, BAFTA, Critics' Choice), and industry momentum leading into the ceremony. The Academy Awards voting and ceremony, scheduled for early 2029, represents the definitive resolution point for this outcome. Market pricing suggests traders view The Social Reckoning and Dune: Part Three as stronger contenders at present, though probabilities this far from resolution remain highly speculative and subject to substantial revision as films release and accumulate accolades.
- ›Box office performance and audience reception upon the film's theatrical release will significantly influence awards momentum and industry perception
- ›Critical reviews and Rotten Tomatoes/Metacritic scores typically correlate with Academy voting patterns and influence nomination chances
- ›Wins or nominations from major precursor awards (Golden Globes, SAG Awards, BAFTA, Critics' Choice) would substantially increase The Odyssey's odds if achieved
- ›Competition from other contenders like The Social Reckoning, Dune: Part Three, and Digger may consolidate industry support away from The Odyssey if those films gain early traction
- ›The film's genre, runtime, and thematic content relative to recent Best Picture winners should factor into assessments of Academy voter alignment
What moved the line
- May 6The Odyssey↓13pp36→23¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Digger↑3pp3→6¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Wild Horse Nine↑3pp3→6¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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