Will The Odyssey win Best Picture at the Oscars
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 23% across 4 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
23%
4 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$99K
4 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2027
464 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 4 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will The Odyssey win Best Picture at the Oscars
Will The Odyssey win Best Picture at the Oscars?: The Odyssey
KXOSCARPIC-27-ODY
Cluster 2
Will The Black Ball win Best Picture at the Oscars
Will The Black Ball win Best Picture at the Oscars?: The Black Ball
KXOSCARPIC-27-BLA
Cluster 3
Will Wild Horse Nine win Best Picture at the Oscars
Will Wild Horse Nine win Best Picture at the Oscars?: Wild Horse Nine
KXOSCARPIC-27-WIL
Cluster 4
Will Dune: Part Three win Best Picture at the Oscars
Will Dune: Part Three win Best Picture at the Oscars?: Dune: Part Three
KXOSCARPIC-27-DUN
Analysis
The Odyssey is currently assigned a 15% probability of winning Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards, reflecting market expectations that it has roughly a 1-in-7 chance compared to other competing films. This probability is based on aggregated trading across Kalshi contracts, where The Odyssey trades at 47 cents—significantly higher than other tracked candidates like Dune: Part Three at 17 cents. The main drivers of this level are The Odyssey's perceived critical reception and awards-season momentum relative to competing films. Key uncertainty will resolve through upcoming film festivals (Venice, Toronto, Telluride in fall 2026) where The Odyssey and competitors will receive critical evaluation, followed by Golden Globe and BAFTA results in early 2027, which historically correlate with Oscar outcomes. The 99th Academy Awards ceremony is scheduled for March 2, 2027, at which point the actual winner will be determined.
- ›The Odyssey's current 47-cent contract price is roughly 3x higher than Dune: Part Three (17 cents) and 8x higher than other major tracked candidates, indicating relative market confidence
- ›Trading volume on The Odyssey contract ($22,665 in 24h volume) dwarfs competing films, suggesting concentrated belief among traders
- ›The outcome depends on The Odyssey's performance at Venice Film Festival (August 28-September 7, 2026) and subsequent fall festivals, which drive critical consensus
- ›Historical correlation between fall festival awards (Venice, Toronto) and eventual Oscar outcomes will materially influence contract prices through winter 2026
- ›The final resolution occurs at the 99th Academy Awards on March 2, 2027, with no intermediate betting catalysts after early 2027 guild award results
What moved the line
- Sep 17The Black Ball↑5pp10→15¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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