Will The Odyssey win Best Picture at the Oscars

30-day trend

Analysis

The Odyssey has a 9% implied probability of winning Best Picture at the 2029 Academy Awards, meaning prediction markets assign roughly a 1-in-11 chance the film will claim cinema's highest honor. This low probability reflects either skepticism about the film's commercial or critical performance, or confidence in competing titles. The metric would shift based on box office returns, critical reception upon release, guild award nominations (Golden Globes, SAG, BAFTA, Critics' Choice), and industry momentum leading into the ceremony. The Academy Awards voting and ceremony, scheduled for early 2029, represents the definitive resolution point for this outcome. Market pricing suggests traders view The Social Reckoning and Dune: Part Three as stronger contenders at present, though probabilities this far from resolution remain highly speculative and subject to substantial revision as films release and accumulate accolades.

• ›Box office performance and audience reception upon the film's theatrical release will significantly influence awards momentum and industry perception
• ›Critical reviews and Rotten Tomatoes/Metacritic scores typically correlate with Academy voting patterns and influence nomination chances
• ›Wins or nominations from major precursor awards (Golden Globes, SAG Awards, BAFTA, Critics' Choice) would substantially increase The Odyssey's odds if achieved
• ›Competition from other contenders like The Social Reckoning, Dune: Part Three, and Digger may consolidate industry support away from The Odyssey if those films gain early traction
• ›The film's genre, runtime, and thematic content relative to recent Best Picture winners should factor into assessments of Academy voter alignment

What moved the line

• Jun 25Digger↓6pp11→5¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds