Will John Goodman win Best Supporting Actor at the Oscars
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 12% across 7 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
12%
7 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$492
7 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2027
493 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
7 clusters across 7 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Edward Norton win Best Supporting Actor at the Oscars
Will Edward Norton win Best Supporting Actor at the Oscars?: Edward Norton
KXOSCARSUPACTO-27-EDW
Cluster 2
Will John Goodman win Best Supporting Actor at the Oscars
Will John Goodman win Best Supporting Actor at the Oscars?: John Goodman
KXOSCARSUPACTO-27-JOH
Cluster 3
Will John Leguizamo win Best Supporting Actor at the Oscars
Will John Leguizamo win Best Supporting Actor at the Oscars?: John Leguizamo
KXOSCARSUPACTO-27-JOHN
Cluster 4
Will Robert Pattinson win Best Supporting Actor at the Oscars
Will Robert Pattinson win Best Supporting Actor at the Oscars?: Robert Pattinson
KXOSCARSUPACTO-27-ROB
Cluster 5
Will Jeremy Strong win Best Supporting Actor at the Oscars
Will Jeremy Strong win Best Supporting Actor at the Oscars?: Jeremy Strong
KXOSCARSUPACTO-27-JER
Cluster 6
Will Paul Giamatti win Best Supporting Actor at the Oscars
Will Paul Giamatti win Best Supporting Actor at the Oscars?: Paul Giamatti
KXOSCARSUPACTO-27-PAU
Cluster 7
Will Sam Rockwell win Best Supporting Actor at the Oscars
Will Sam Rockwell win Best Supporting Actor at the Oscars?: Sam Rockwell
KXOSCARSUPACTO-27-SAM
Analysis
This probability reflects the likelihood that John Goodman will win the Academy Award for Best Supporting Actor at the next Oscars ceremony. At 5%, it places him among the longer-shot candidates in a competitive category. The current low probability likely reflects that Goodman has limited recent high-profile film releases in awards-eligible genres, and the Supporting Actor field typically features performers with more prominent roles in major studio productions or prestige projects. The probability will shift based on films released during the eligibility window and their performance at earlier award ceremonies (Golden Globes, BAFTAs, Screen Actors Guild Awards), which typically serve as indicators of Academy voting patterns. The final resolution occurs at the Oscars ceremony in early 2027, after voting closes in late February.
- ›Goodman's recent filmography and whether any upcoming releases position him as a supporting actor contender in high-profile productions
- ›The performance of other competing actors and films at earlier award ceremonies like the Golden Globes and SAG Awards
- ›Number and quality of films released during the Academy eligibility window that feature Goodman in supporting roles
- ›Historical voting patterns in the Supporting Actor category and how Goodman's typical casting choices compare to recent winners
- ›Media and industry commentary on the strength of the overall 2026-2027 supporting actor field
What moved the line
- Aug 19John Leguizamo↓12pp24→12¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 20John Leguizamo↑7pp12→19¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 24John Leguizamo↑5pp15→20¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 21Robert Pattinson↑5pp10→15¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 18John Leguizamo↑4pp20→24¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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