Will Miles Brown perform as Miles Morales in The first Marvel Studios live-action film in the Marvel Cinematic Universe to feature Miles Morales
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 10% across 7 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
10%
7 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$123
7 contracts
Closes
Dec 30, 2028
922 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
7 clusters across 7 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Miles Brown perform as Miles Morales in The first Marvel Studios live-action film in the Marvel Cinematic Universe to feature Miles Morales
Cluster 2
Will Caleb McLaughlin perform as Miles Morales in The first Marvel Studios live-action film in the Marvel Cinematic Universe to feature Miles Morales
Cluster 3
Will Dallas Dupree Young perform as Miles Morales in The first Marvel Studios live-action film in the Marvel Cinematic Universe to feature Miles Morales
Cluster 4
Will Alex R. Hibbert perform as Miles Morales in The first Marvel Studios live-action film in the Marvel Cinematic Universe to feature Miles Morales
Cluster 5
Will Justice Smith perform as Miles Morales in The first Marvel Studios live-action film in the Marvel Cinematic Universe to feature Miles Morales
Cluster 6
Will Myles Truitt perform as Miles Morales in The first Marvel Studios live-action film in the Marvel Cinematic Universe to feature Miles Morales
Cluster 7
Will Tyler James Williams perform as Miles Morales in The first Marvel Studios live-action film in the Marvel Cinematic Universe to feature Miles Morales
Analysis
This market estimates the likelihood that Miles Brown will be cast as Miles Morales in Marvel Studios' first live-action MCU film featuring the character. At 8%, this reflects relatively low confidence in Brown's casting compared to other candidates. The probability is primarily driven by casting decisions Marvel has yet to announce and the competitive field of young actors being considered for the role. Caleb McLaughlin leads alternative contracts at 12%, while Justice Smith and Tyler James Williams also trade higher than Brown. The resolution point will come when Marvel officially announces the actor selected for this role, likely through studio channels or major entertainment media. Until that announcement, market prices reflect traders' assessments of relative likelihood based on factors like actor availability, previous Marvel collaborations, and industry speculation.
- ›Caleb McLaughlin commands higher market probability (12¢) than Miles Brown (8¢), indicating traders perceive him as a stronger candidate
- ›The top five alternative candidates collectively represent 54¢ of probability, showing the market views this as highly competitive with no clear frontrunner
- ›Recent Marvel casting announcements and hiring patterns would inform whether Miles Brown fits the studio's typical selection criteria
- ›No official announcement or confirmed production timeline for a Miles Morales MCU film has been publicly released as of the market date
- ›Trading volume on the top contracts ($550 in 24h volume for McLaughlin) versus Brown's related contract indicates active market participation and potentially evolving sentiment
Recently closed in general
- Who will win the 2026 D.C. Democratic Mayoral Primarylast 97% · 2d
- Louisiana Democratic Senate Primary Winnerlast 89% · 3d
- Tennessee Democratic Senate Primary Winnerlast 64% · 3d
- Will Databricks' valuation hit __ by December 31?: ↑$180Blast 94% · 3d
- Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikeslast 97% · 3d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.