Who will perform at The Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026
Leader sits at 4% across 16 bound outcomes, runner-up at 4%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Chappell Roan
Outcomes
16
winner-take-all
Runner-up
4¢
Sabrina Carpenter
Spread
0pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
221 days
Venue
Kalshi
16 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will perform at The Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026
Who will perform at The Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026?: Cardi B
KXPERFORMVS-26-CAR
Who will perform at The Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026?: Charli xcx
KXPERFORMVS-26-XCX
Who will perform at The Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026?: Tyla
KXPERFORMVS-26-TYLA
Who will perform at The Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026?: Tate McRae
KXPERFORMVS-26-TAT
Who will perform at The Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026?: Shakira
KXPERFORMVS-26-SHAK
Who will perform at The Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026?: Sexyy Red
KXPERFORMVS-26-SEX
Who will perform at The Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026?: Sabrina Carpenter
KXPERFORMVS-26-SAB
Who will perform at The Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026?: Megan Thee Stallion
KXPERFORMVS-26-MEG
Who will perform at The Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026?: Lana Del Rey
KXPERFORMVS-26-LAN
Who will perform at The Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026?: KATSEYE
KXPERFORMVS-26-KATS
Who will perform at The Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026?: Kali Uchis
KXPERFORMVS-26-KAL
Who will perform at The Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026?: Ice Spice
KXPERFORMVS-26-ICE
Who will perform at The Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026?: Dua Lipa
KXPERFORMVS-26-DUA
Who will perform at The Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026?: Doja Cat
KXPERFORMVS-26-DOJ
Who will perform at The Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026?: Doechii
KXPERFORMVS-26-DOE
Who will perform at The Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026?: Chappell Roan
KXPERFORMVS-26-CHAP
Analysis
This 4% probability reflects market expectations that a specific performer will perform at The Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026. The relatively low probability suggests significant uncertainty about which artist will be selected, typical when multiple potential performers compete for a limited number of slots. The show's lineup typically isn't announced until weeks before the event, meaning current pricing reflects sparse public information about 2026's confirmed performers. Key drivers include the show's production timeline, announced performer confirmations, and scheduling conflicts of top-tier artists. The primary resolution catalyst will be the official lineup announcement, expected closer to the show's air date. Until then, market participants lack concrete signals about which performers have committed, keeping probabilities dispersed across multiple candidates.
- ›Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026 lineup has not been publicly announced; performers are typically confirmed 4-8 weeks before the event
- ›16 separate outcome contracts exist with no single contract exceeding 4%, indicating market fragmentation across multiple potential performers
- ›The show's broadcast date and production schedule determine the announcement window and resolution timeline
- ›Artist availability and scheduling conflicts throughout 2026 will influence which performers accept invitations
- ›Historical precedent shows Victoria's Secret typically books established pop/mainstream artists, which constrains the realistic performer pool
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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