Zurich Classic of New Orleans
Leader sits at 12% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 11%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Will Ludvig Aberg make the cut?: Ludvig Aberg
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
11¢
Will Jon Rahm make the cut?:
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$1
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 7, 2026
29 days
Venue
Kalshi
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
PGA Championship
PGA Championship: Will Jon Rahm make the cut?: Jon Rahm
KXPGAMAKECUT-PGC26-JRAH
PGA Championship: Will Bryson DeChambeau make the cut?: Bryson DeChambeau
KXPGAMAKECUT-PGC26-BDEC
PGA Championship: Will Wyndham Clark make the cut?: Wyndham Clark
KXPGAMAKECUT-PGC26-WCLA
PGA Championship: Will Patrick Cantlay make the cut?: Patrick Cantlay
KXPGAMAKECUT-PGC26-PCAN
PGA Championship: Will Ludvig Aberg make the cut?: Ludvig Aberg
KXPGAMAKECUT-PGC26-LABE
Analysis
The Zurich Classic of New Orleans is a PGA Tour golf tournament held annually in Louisiana, and the 6% probability reflects market expectations about a specific outcome related to this event—likely involving tournament winner prediction, venue-related betting, or New Orleans sports team performance coinciding with the tournament dates. The current low probability suggests the market views this outcome as unlikely given available information. Key drivers include historical tournament data, participant field strength, weather patterns during the tournament window, and any recent announcements about format changes or participating players. The main resolution point will be the tournament results when it occurs, with the specific outcome determined by final leaderboard standings or announced participants.
- ›Historical tournament results and winner patterns at the Zurich Classic dating back multiple years
- ›Quality and composition of the current PGA Tour player field committed to participate
- ›Weather forecasts and course conditions at TPC Louisiana for the tournament dates
- ›Recent form and rankings of the favorite contenders or specific players relevant to the bet
- ›Any announced changes to tournament format, sponsorship, or scheduling that could affect outcome likelihood
Recently closed in general
- What will Donald Trump say during CNBClast 95% · 1d
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: D Senate, R Houselast 3% · 1d
- Will any member of Trump's Cabinet leave before Aug 2026last 85% · 1d
- What will any participating candidate say during South Carolina GOP gubernatorial debatenolast 7% · 1d
- FC Gifu vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC - More Marketslast 74% · 2d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 1 min ago.