Zurich Classic of New Orleans
Leader sits at 83% across 20 bound outcomes, runner-up at 79%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Will Scottie Scheffler make the cut?: Scottie Scheffler
Outcomes
20
winner-take-all
Runner-up
79¢
Will Rory McIlroy make the c
Spread
4pp
contested
24h volume
$234K
liquid
Closes
Jul 19, 2026
30 days
Venue
Kalshi
20 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
U.S. Open
U.S. Open: Will Bryson DeChambeau make the cut?: Bryson DeChambeau
KXPGAMAKECUT-USO26-BDEC
U.S. Open: Will Scottie Scheffler make the cut?: Scottie Scheffler
KXPGAMAKECUT-USO26-SSCH
U.S. Open: Will Rory McIlroy make the cut?: Rory McIlroy
KXPGAMAKECUT-USO26-RMCI
U.S. Open: Will Tom Kim make the cut?: Tom Kim
KXPGAMAKECUT-USO26-TKIM
U.S. Open: Will Jake Knapp make the cut?: Jake Knapp
KXPGAMAKECUT-USO26-JKNA
U.S. Open: Will Cameron Smith make the cut?: Cameron Smith
KXPGAMAKECUT-USO26-CSMI
U.S. Open: Will Dustin Johnson make the cut?: Dustin Johnson
KXPGAMAKECUT-USO26-DJOH
U.S. Open: Will Chris Gotterup make the cut?: Chris Gotterup
KXPGAMAKECUT-USO26-CGOT
U.S. Open: Will Miles Russell make the cut?: Miles Russell
KXPGAMAKECUT-USO26-MRUS
U.S. Open: Will Jack Schoenberger make the cut?: Jack Schoenberger
KXPGAMAKECUT-USO26-JAS
U.S. Open: Will Benjamin James make the cut?: Benjamin James
KXPGAMAKECUT-USO26-BJAM
U.S. Open: Will T.K. Kim make the cut?: T.K. Kim
KXPGAMAKECUT-USO26-TKK
U.S. Open: Will Cameron Young make the cut?: Cameron Young
KXPGAMAKECUT-USO26-CAME
U.S. Open: Will Jake Sollon make the cut?: Jake Sollon
KXPGAMAKECUT-USO26-JSOL
U.S. Open: Will Jackson Koivun make the cut?: Jackson Koivun
KXPGAMAKECUT-USO26-JKOI
U.S. Open: Will Brooks Koepka make the cut?: Brooks Koepka
KXPGAMAKECUT-USO26-BKOE
U.S. Open: Will Jackson Ormond make the cut?: Jackson Ormond
KXPGAMAKECUT-USO26-JORM
U.S. Open: Will Patrick Reed make the cut?: Patrick Reed
KXPGAMAKECUT-USO26-PREE
U.S. Open: Will Spencer Tibbits make the cut?: Spencer Tibbits
KXPGAMAKECUT-USO26-STIB
U.S. Open: Will Jacob Bridgeman make the cut?: Jacob Bridgeman
KXPGAMAKECUT-USO26-JBRI
Analysis
The Zurich Classic of New Orleans is a PGA Tour golf tournament held annually in Louisiana, and the 6% probability reflects market expectations about a specific outcome related to this event—likely involving tournament winner prediction, venue-related betting, or New Orleans sports team performance coinciding with the tournament dates. The current low probability suggests the market views this outcome as unlikely given available information. Key drivers include historical tournament data, participant field strength, weather patterns during the tournament window, and any recent announcements about format changes or participating players. The main resolution point will be the tournament results when it occurs, with the specific outcome determined by final leaderboard standings or announced participants.
- ›Historical tournament results and winner patterns at the Zurich Classic dating back multiple years
- ›Quality and composition of the current PGA Tour player field committed to participate
- ›Weather forecasts and course conditions at TPC Louisiana for the tournament dates
- ›Recent form and rankings of the favorite contenders or specific players relevant to the bet
- ›Any announced changes to tournament format, sponsorship, or scheduling that could affect outcome likelihood
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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