SimpleFunctions
ClosedFinal: Will Collin Morikawa make the cut?: Collin Morikawa. Last odds shown below are frozen at close (Jun 19, 2026). Future questions tracked on /odds.
Winner-take-all answer·20 source contracts·Kalshi 20·closed just now·Closes Jul 19, 2026 · 30d

Zurich Classic of New Orleans

Leader sits at 83% across 20 bound outcomes, runner-up at 79%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

83%

Will Scottie Scheffler make the cut?: Scottie Scheffler

runner-up 79¢leader 83¢

Outcomes

20

winner-take-all

Runner-up

79¢

Will Rory McIlroy make the c

Spread

4pp

contested

24h volume

$234K

liquid

Closes

Jul 19, 2026

30 days

Venue

Kalshi

20 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayWill Scottie Scheffler make the cut?: Scottie Scheffler: 87% (18 days, 15 points)Will Scottie Scheffler make the cut?: Scottie Scheffler: 87% on 2026-06-18Will Rory McIlroy make the cut?: Rory McIlroy: 78% (18 days, 15 points)Will Rory McIlroy make the cut?: Rory McIlroy: 78% on 2026-06-18Will Cameron Young make the cut?: Cameron Young: 69% (18 days, 16 points)Will Cameron Young make the cut?: Cameron Young: 69% on 2026-06-18
Will Scottie Scheffler make the cut?: Scottie Scheffler87¢Will Rory McIlroy make the cut?: Rory McIlroy78¢Will Cameron Young make the cut?: Cameron Young69¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 18d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Cluster 1

U.S. Open

20 contracts$234K
OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

U.S. Open: Will Bryson DeChambeau make the cut?: Bryson DeChambeau

KXPGAMAKECUT-USO26-BDEC

59¢2pp$34KK

U.S. Open: Will Scottie Scheffler make the cut?: Scottie Scheffler

KXPGAMAKECUT-USO26-SSCH

83¢2pp$21KK

U.S. Open: Will Rory McIlroy make the cut?: Rory McIlroy

KXPGAMAKECUT-USO26-RMCI

79¢1pp$21KK

U.S. Open: Will Tom Kim make the cut?: Tom Kim

KXPGAMAKECUT-USO26-TKIM

50¢+3pp$21KK

U.S. Open: Will Jake Knapp make the cut?: Jake Knapp

KXPGAMAKECUT-USO26-JKNA

51¢1pp$14KK

U.S. Open: Will Cameron Smith make the cut?: Cameron Smith

KXPGAMAKECUT-USO26-CSMI

54¢+1pp$14KK

U.S. Open: Will Dustin Johnson make the cut?: Dustin Johnson

KXPGAMAKECUT-USO26-DJOH

53¢+2pp$13KK

U.S. Open: Will Chris Gotterup make the cut?: Chris Gotterup

KXPGAMAKECUT-USO26-CGOT

61¢+1pp$11KK

U.S. Open: Will Miles Russell make the cut?: Miles Russell

KXPGAMAKECUT-USO26-MRUS

24¢1pp$11KK

U.S. Open: Will Jack Schoenberger make the cut?: Jack Schoenberger

KXPGAMAKECUT-USO26-JAS

8¢+1pp$10KK

U.S. Open: Will Benjamin James make the cut?: Benjamin James

KXPGAMAKECUT-USO26-BJAM

37¢+2pp$8KK

U.S. Open: Will T.K. Kim make the cut?: T.K. Kim

KXPGAMAKECUT-USO26-TKK

18¢+2pp$8KK

U.S. Open: Will Cameron Young make the cut?: Cameron Young

KXPGAMAKECUT-USO26-CAME

71¢5pp$7KK

U.S. Open: Will Jake Sollon make the cut?: Jake Sollon

KXPGAMAKECUT-USO26-JSOL

5¢+1pp$6KK

U.S. Open: Will Jackson Koivun make the cut?: Jackson Koivun

KXPGAMAKECUT-USO26-JKOI

53¢1pp$6KK

U.S. Open: Will Brooks Koepka make the cut?: Brooks Koepka

KXPGAMAKECUT-USO26-BKOE

57¢3pp$6KK

U.S. Open: Will Jackson Ormond make the cut?: Jackson Ormond

KXPGAMAKECUT-USO26-JORM

3¢±0$6KK

U.S. Open: Will Patrick Reed make the cut?: Patrick Reed

KXPGAMAKECUT-USO26-PREE

66¢+1pp$6KK

U.S. Open: Will Spencer Tibbits make the cut?: Spencer Tibbits

KXPGAMAKECUT-USO26-STIB

5¢+1pp$5KK

U.S. Open: Will Jacob Bridgeman make the cut?: Jacob Bridgeman

KXPGAMAKECUT-USO26-JBRI

53¢1pp$5KK

Analysis

The Zurich Classic of New Orleans is a PGA Tour golf tournament held annually in Louisiana, and the 6% probability reflects market expectations about a specific outcome related to this event—likely involving tournament winner prediction, venue-related betting, or New Orleans sports team performance coinciding with the tournament dates. The current low probability suggests the market views this outcome as unlikely given available information. Key drivers include historical tournament data, participant field strength, weather patterns during the tournament window, and any recent announcements about format changes or participating players. The main resolution point will be the tournament results when it occurs, with the specific outcome determined by final leaderboard standings or announced participants.

  • Historical tournament results and winner patterns at the Zurich Classic dating back multiple years
  • Quality and composition of the current PGA Tour player field committed to participate
  • Weather forecasts and course conditions at TPC Louisiana for the tournament dates
  • Recent form and rankings of the favorite contenders or specific players relevant to the bet
  • Any announced changes to tournament format, sponsorship, or scheduling that could affect outcome likelihood

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

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