Will there be a playoff at the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 49% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
49%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$309
1 contracts
Closes
Sep 6, 2026
27 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will there be a playoff at the 2026 Wyndham Championship
Will there be a playoff at the 2026 Wyndham Championship?: Playoff
KXPGAPLAYOFF-WYC26
Analysis
This contract reflects a 6% probability that the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open will end with a playoff between tied players. Golf majors and regular tour events rarely require playoffs—most fields are large enough and scoring conditions varied enough that outright winners emerge. Playoff frequency depends on field strength, course setup, and weather conditions during the tournament. The 2026 event will occur in early July at Renaissance Club in North Berwick, Scotland. Historical playoff rates across professional golf typically range from 2–5%, making 6% slightly elevated but still representing an uncommon outcome. The contract resolves definitively when the tournament concludes, based on whether the winner is determined by a playoff or standard scoring.
- ›Historical playoff frequency in professional golf events averages 2-5%, providing a baseline for whether 6% is above or below normal
- ›Course difficulty and setup at Renaissance Club in 2026 will affect scoring compression—tighter setups increase playoff probability, generous conditions reduce it
- ›Field size and participant caliber influence variance in final scores; larger, deeper fields make ties less probable than smaller or less competitive events
- ›Weather conditions during the 2026 tournament dates (early July in Scotland) will determine scoring difficulty and likelihood of tied leaders
- ›The specific playoff format rules established by the DP World Tour for the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open will affect how scoring ties are resolved
What moved the line
- Aug 9Playoff↑16pp27→43¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 7Playoff↑13pp17→30¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 4Playoff↓4pp15→11¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 6Playoff↑4pp13→17¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 8Playoff↓3pp30→27¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (49% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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