Will Tie win the Solheim Cup
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 44% across 2 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
44%
2 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$32
2 contracts
Closes
Sep 12, 2028
809 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 2 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will United States win the Solheim Cup
Will United States win the Solheim Cup?: United States
KXPGASOLHEIM-SC26-USA
Cluster 2
Will Europe win the Solheim Cup
Will Europe win the Solheim Cup?: Europe
KXPGASOLHEIM-SC26-EU
Analysis
A 33% probability indicates the market estimates roughly one-in-three odds that the event will occur. The Solheim Cup is a biennial golf competition featuring teams of professional women golfers from Europe and the United States. Probability levels in prediction markets reflect aggregated expectations based on historical performance, current team composition, player form, and venue factors. Movements in this probability would typically result from significant changes in player rankings, recent tournament results, team roster announcements, or course-specific conditions that favor one team over another. The upcoming event date serves as the primary resolution point, with market participants continuously adjusting odds based on new information about player fitness, recent performance metrics, and head-to-head historical matchups between the competing sides.
- ›Historical win rates and recent performance trends of each team in Solheim Cup competitions
- ›Current world golf rankings and form of individual team members leading into the event
- ›Course setup and venue characteristics that may favor European or American playing styles
- ›Injury status or roster changes announced by either team before competition
- ›Recent international match play results and team dynamics from the season leading to the event
What moved the line
- Jun 25United States↓8pp57→49¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 21United States↑4pp56→60¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 20United States↑3pp53→56¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (44% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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