Will Ben Shelton sign a partnership with Ralph Lauren
Leader sits at 11% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 8%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Nike
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
8¢
New Balance
Spread
3pp
contested
24h volume
$108
thin orderbook
Closes
May 8, 2027
233 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Ben Shelton sign a partnership
Will Ben Shelton sign a partnership with Adidas?: Adidas
KXPLAYERDEAL-27MAYBSHE-ADI
Will Ben Shelton sign a partnership with New Balance?: New Balance
KXPLAYERDEAL-27MAYBSHE-NB
Will Ben Shelton sign a partnership with Nike?: Nike
KXPLAYERDEAL-27MAYBSHE-NIKE
Analysis
This represents the collective estimate that professional tennis player Ben Shelton will sign an endorsement deal with Ralph Lauren by a specific future date. The 13% probability reflects relatively low confidence in this outcome, likely driven by the absence of public signals or announcements suggesting active negotiations. Several athletic brands are being tracked in separate contracts at similar probability levels, suggesting market participants view multiple partnership scenarios as plausible but none as highly probable. The probability could shift upward if Shelton publicly indicates interest in apparel partnerships, if Ralph Lauren targets tennis players in their sponsorship strategy, or if reporting emerges about ongoing discussions. Resolution depends on an official announcement of a signed partnership agreement between Shelton and the brand.
- ›Ben Shelton's current endorsement portfolio and existing apparel partnerships, if any
- ›Ralph Lauren's recent investment in tennis sponsorships and athlete partnerships compared to competitor brands
- ›Public statements or reporting from either party regarding partnership intentions or negotiations
- ›Timing relative to major tennis tournaments where Shelton might debut new sponsored apparel
- ›Market pricing of competing outcomes (Adidas, Alo, Lululemon at 16¢ each) suggesting fragmented expectations across brands
What moved the line
- Sep 10New Balance↑20pp20→40¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 11New Balance↑19pp40→59¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 12Adidas↓11pp15→4¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 10Adidas↑4pp11→15¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 12New Balance↓4pp59→55¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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