Will average price of electricity per kilowatt-hour in the U.S. city average for May 2026 be above 19.0¢
Leader sits at 94% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 90%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 19.0¢
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
90¢
Above 19.2¢
Spread
4pp
contested
24h volume
$96
thin orderbook
Closes
Jul 14, 2026
22 days
Venue
Kalshi
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will average price of electricity per kilowatt-hour in the U.S. city average for June 2026 be above 19
Will average price of electricity per kilowatt-hour in the U.S. city average for June 2026 be above 19.6¢?: Above 19.6¢
KXPOWERKWH-26JUL14-T19.6
Will average price of electricity per kilowatt-hour in the U.S. city average for June 2026 be above 19.4¢?: Above 19.4¢
KXPOWERKWH-26JUL14-T19.4
Will average price of electricity per kilowatt-hour in the U.S. city average for June 2026 be above 19.2¢?: Above 19.2¢
KXPOWERKWH-26JUL14-T19.2
Will average price of electricity per kilowatt-hour in the U.S. city average for June 2026 be above 19.0¢?: Above 19.0¢
KXPOWERKWH-26JUL14-T19.0
Analysis
This question asks whether the U.S. city-average electricity price will exceed 19.0¢ per kilowatt-hour in May 2026. The 82% probability reflects expectations that prices will remain elevated above this threshold. Markets are pricing in persistent upward pressure on electricity costs, though the declining probabilities at higher price tiers (75% at 19.4¢, 64% at 19.6¢, 49% at 20.0¢) suggest meaningful uncertainty about how high prices will actually climb. The outcome will depend on natural gas prices, demand levels, generation capacity utilization, and any regulatory changes during the spring months. Electricity prices are settled based on actual EIA or other official data reported for May 2026, typically released in mid-June 2026. Market participants are essentially betting that current cost pressures remain significant enough to keep the city-average rate in the higher range rather than falling back below the 19.0¢ mark.
- ›Natural gas prices during April-May 2026 will be a primary driver, since gas typically fuels 30-40% of U.S. electricity generation and tracks closely with wholesale electricity costs
- ›Demand patterns in May (cooling-related usage) and prevailing generation capacity utilization across interconnects will determine whether supply constraints sustain high prices
- ›The probability gradient (82% at 19.0¢ down to 49% at 20.0¢) indicates markets see a clustering of outcomes in the 19.2-19.6¢ range rather than extreme highs or lows
- ›EIA will publish official May 2026 city-average electricity prices in mid-June 2026, creating a single unambiguous settlement date with no subjective interpretation required
- ›Renewable generation levels and fuel-mix availability during the period will affect marginal cost of electricity production and overall average pricing
What moved the line
- Jun 17Above 19.2¢↓7pp92→85¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 17Above 19.4¢↓5pp85→80¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 17Above 19.6¢↓4pp86→82¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 18Above 19.6¢↑4pp82→86¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 15Above 19.2¢↑4pp88→92¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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