Will Manchester City win the English Premier League
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 17% across 6 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
17%
6 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$29
6 contracts
Closes
Jun 13, 2027
350 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
5 clusters across 6 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 13% of their title tokens — “Will Manchester” vs “Will Chelsea win the English Premier League”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Manchester
Cluster 2
Will Chelsea win the English Premier League
Will Chelsea win the English Premier League?: Chelsea
KXPREMIERLEAGUE-27-CFC
Cluster 3
Will Arsenal win the English Premier League
Will Arsenal win the English Premier League?: Arsenal
KXPREMIERLEAGUE-27-ARS
Cluster 4
Will Coventry City win the English Premier League
Will Coventry City win the English Premier League?: Coventry City
KXPREMIERLEAGUE-27-COV
Cluster 5
Will Liverpool win the English Premier League
Will Liverpool win the English Premier League?: Liverpool
KXPREMIERLEAGUE-27-LFC
Analysis
Manchester City is currently priced at 16% to win the English Premier League, indicating a significant decrease in their title prospects compared to historical performance. This probability reflects market expectations based on recent team performance, injury status, managerial continuity, and competitive positioning relative to Liverpool (8%), Arsenal (37%), and Chelsea (7%). The main factors driving this relatively low estimate are likely Manchester City's performance trajectory this season and how that compares to rival teams' strength. Key upcoming resolution points include the final matches of the current Premier League season, where points totals will become increasingly difficult to alter and teams' final standings will determine the winner.
- ›Manchester City's current points total and goal differential compared to Liverpool and Arsenal as of mid-June 2026
- ›Win rate and remaining fixtures: how many games Manchester City has left versus direct title competitors and relative difficulty of those fixtures
- ›Recent form and consistency: Manchester City's performance in the last 10-15 matches relative to their historical seasonal average
- ›Squad depth and injury status: availability of key players and whether critical absences are temporary or season-long
- ›Historical odds correlation: whether this 16% figure aligns with Manchester City's actual points gap to the leader and mathematical probability of closing it
What moved the line
- Jun 21Manchester City↑4pp17→21¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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