Will the number of White House Press Briefings in Apr 2026 be at least 4
Leader sits at 78% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 36%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
At least 3
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
36¢
At least 4
Spread
42pp
contested
24h volume
$1
thin orderbook
Closes
Jul 1, 2026
5 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the number of White House Press Briefings in Jun 2026 be at least
Will the number of White House Press Briefings in Jun 2026 be at least 3?: At least 3
KXPRESSBRIEFINGCOUNT-26JUN-A3
Will the number of White House Press Briefings in Jun 2026 be at least 5?: At least 5
KXPRESSBRIEFINGCOUNT-26JUN-A5
Will the number of White House Press Briefings in Jun 2026 be at least 4?: At least 4
KXPRESSBRIEFINGCOUNT-26JUN-A4
Analysis
This contract asks whether the White House held at least three press briefings during May 2026. The 93% probability reflects trader expectations that this threshold will be met. Press briefing frequency depends on the presidential calendar, news cycles, and staffing priorities at the White House Communications Office. Historical patterns show that briefings typically occur multiple times per week during periods of normal operations, though frequency can drop during recesses or crisis periods. The contract resolves on June 1st when May's final count becomes available. Traders have priced in a high likelihood of meeting the minimum threshold, suggesting confidence in routine operations continuing through the month. The gap between the 93% and 6% contracts (three versus four briefings) indicates modest uncertainty about whether the administration will maintain elevated briefing activity.
- ›May 2026 contains approximately 22 business days; historical White House press briefing frequency must be examined to establish baseline expectations
- ›The presidential calendar for May 2026 determines whether the President is in Washington or traveling internationally, which affects briefing frequency
- ›Staff absences, holidays, or scheduling conflicts could reduce the number of briefings held below typical monthly levels
- ›Media demand and breaking news cycles influence whether the Communications Office schedules briefings or conducts alternative formats
- ›The contract resolves on June 1, 2026, when official May briefing records become available through White House archives or press office documentation
What moved the line
- Jun 23At least 4↓10pp51→41¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 22At least 5↓7pp19→12¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 20At least 3↑6pp74→80¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 24At least 4↓5pp41→36¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 23At least 3↓4pp81→77¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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