Pro Football Draft: 1st Round Most Drafted Position

30-day trend

Analysis

At 21%, this probability reflects the likelihood that wide receiver will be the most-drafted position in the 2027 NFL Draft's first round. The market assessment is driven primarily by QB scarcity—with Arch Manning priced at 38¢ to go first overall, quarterback selection is fragmenting demand across multiple prospects rather than concentrating it in one position. Wide receiver demand depends on which teams hold top picks; Miami's 12¢ odds to pick first suggest current draft positioning would favor other positions. The 2026 NFL season and subsequent tank dynamics will reshape draft order and team needs, while the trading deadline could trigger deals that alter which positions teams prioritize. The resolution comes when first-round selections conclude in April 2027.

• ›Arch Manning's 38¢ first-overall price indicates QB demand is distributed across prospects rather than concentrated, reducing likelihood any single position dominates first-round selections
• ›Miami holding 12¢ odds for first pick means the second-worst 2026 team likely has defensive or QB needs; Arizona at 11¢ suggests defensive-heavy top-5 draft interest
• ›Wide receiver has limited historical precedent as most-drafted first-round position; positional distribution patterns from 2020-2025 drafts show QB/edge/DB dominance
• ›Off-season trades and free agency between now and April 2027 will alter team needs; teams acquiring premium pass-rushers or secondary players reduce WR demand
• ›Injury attrition to elite QB/edge prospects during 2026 season could consolidate demand into specific positions not currently favored

What moved the line

• Jun 24New York J↑19pp6→25¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 24Miami↑18pp4→22¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 24Cleveland↑14pp5→19¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 23Miami↓8pp12→4¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 20Arizona↑4pp15→19¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds