Rain in Austin in Apr 2026
Leader sits at 3% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 3%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 6 inches
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
3¢
Above 7 inches
Spread
0pp
contested
24h volume
$536
thin orderbook
Closes
Jul 1, 2026
3 days
Venue
Kalshi
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Rain in Austin in Jun 2026
Analysis
The 93% probability indicates market participants assess a high likelihood of measurable rainfall in Austin during June 2026, with most conviction centered on exceeding 3 inches. This high probability reflects typical June weather patterns in central Texas, which historically receives precipitation from both organized systems and afternoon thunderstorms. The market's confidence diminishes sharply for heavier rainfall thresholds—contracts pricing in 6+ inches trade at just 20 cents, suggesting significant uncertainty about intense precipitation events. The main drivers are historical June rainfall climatology for Austin and current atmospheric conditions as the month approaches. The probability will sharpen considerably once June 1 arrives and actual precipitation begins accumulating, with the first two weeks of the month likely to be decisive since early month activity would establish whether conditions are tracking toward the 3-inch threshold. Real-time weather forecasts and observed rainfall totals will ultimately determine the outcome.
- ›Austin's June climatological average rainfall is approximately 4.8 inches, supporting the elevated probability for exceeding 3 inches
- ›The market prices 6+ inches at only 20 cents despite a 93% baseline, indicating skepticism about extreme precipitation relative to moderate thresholds
- ›Current 24-hour trading volume concentrates on the 3-inch and 6-inch contracts ($425 and $878), suggesting these are the key decision points for market participants
- ›Historical June data shows high variability in Austin rainfall, with some years producing 1 inch and others exceeding 8 inches within the same calendar month
- ›Resolution occurs based on recorded precipitation data from Austin, which is operationally verifiable and leaves no ambiguity about outcome determination
What moved the line
- Jun 21Above 6 inches↓28pp49→21¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 22Above 6 inches↓10pp21→11¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 23Above 6 inches↓7pp11→4¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 22Above 7 inches↓7pp10→3¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (3% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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