Winner-take-all · 5 outcomes5 contractsKalshirefreshed 1 min agoCloses Jun 1, 2026 · 23d

Rain in Austin in Apr 2026

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Leader sits at 84% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 55%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

84%

Above 3 inches

0¢runner-up 55¢leader 84¢

Outcomes

winner-take-all

Runner-up

55¢

Above 4 inches

Spread

29pp

contested

24h volume

$492

thin orderbook

Closes

Jun 1, 2026

23 days

Venue

Kalshi

5 bound

Top contract →Read as answer

30-day trend

Above 3 inches88¢Above 4 inches63¢Above 5 inches39¢

Top 3 candidates by current price · 6d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Cluster 1

Rain in Austin in May 2026

5 contracts$492

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Rain in Austin in May 2026?: Above 4 inches

KXRAINAUSM-26MAY-4

55¢−2pp$219K→

Rain in Austin in May 2026?: Above 3 inches

KXRAINAUSM-26MAY-3

84¢+1pp$184K→

Rain in Austin in May 2026?: Above 5 inches

KXRAINAUSM-26MAY-5

36¢−5pp$67K→

Rain in Austin in May 2026?: Above 6 inches

KXRAINAUSM-26MAY-6

20¢−2pp$21K→

Rain in Austin in May 2026?: Above 7 inches

KXRAINAUSM-26MAY-7

6¢−5pp$1K→

What moved the line

May 2Above 5 inches↓9pp56→47¢ · Kalshi
May 2Above 3 inches↑7pp88→95¢ · Kalshi
May 2Above 4 inches↓5pp71→66¢ · Kalshi
May 6Above 4 inches↓5pp70→65¢ · Kalshi
May 6Above 3 inches↓5pp92→87¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 1 min ago.

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