Rain in Denver in Apr 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 6% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
6%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$7K
1 contracts
Closes
Jul 1, 2026
4 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Rain in Denver in Jun 2026
Rain in Denver in Jun 2026?: Above 2 inches
KXRAINDENM-26JUN-2
Analysis
This market prices the probability that Denver will receive more than 2 inches of rain during May 2026 at 24%, reflecting trader expectations of below-average precipitation for the month. The current probability reflects May's typical climate patterns in Denver, which is one of the driest months climatologically, combined with seasonal forecasts available to traders. The main driver of price movement would be updated long-range weather forecasts from NOAA or shifts in atmospheric patterns suggesting unusual moisture delivery to the region. Resolution occurs automatically on May 31, 2026, when actual measured rainfall at Denver International Airport becomes official data. Traders are distinguishing between three thresholds (2, 3, and 4 inches), with sharply lower prices for higher rainfall amounts, indicating that above 2 inches is viewed as the most likely outcome among the outcomes tested, but still an uncommon event for May.
- ›May is Denver's sixth-driest month on average (0.95 inches historical mean), so 2+ inches would represent roughly double typical precipitation
- ›NOAA's 30-day outlook issued in late May 2026 will be the most significant catalyst for repricing, as it incorporates real-time model consensus closer to resolution date
- ›Denver's location on the leeward side of the Rocky Mountains creates a rain shadow, with most moist systems losing precipitation before reaching the area
- ›Market pricing reflects three discrete outcomes at the same event (2, 3, and 4 inches), showing traders expect the probability of higher thresholds drops sharply—3+ inches at only 3 cents versus 2+ at 22 cents
- ›Weather patterns in late April 2026 will likely inform initial trader positioning, as spring storm activity can affect May's accumulated totals
What moved the line
- Jun 26Above 2 inches↑11pp5→16¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 25Above 2 inches↓5pp10→5¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 24Above 2 inches↑4pp6→10¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (6% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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