Rain in Houston in Apr 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 22% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
22%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1K
1 contracts
Closes
Jul 1, 2026
3 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Rain in Houston in Jun 2026
Rain in Houston in Jun 2026?: Above 7 inches
KXRAINHOUM-26JUN-7
Analysis
Markets are pricing a 87% chance that Houston receives more than 3 inches of rain during May 2026. This represents traders' collective assessment of precipitation risk based on seasonal patterns and current weather data. The probability reflects May's position in Houston's wetter season, though the market shows declining conviction for heavier rainfall events—only 49% confidence in exceeding 7 inches. Key drivers include typical May moisture patterns in the Gulf Coast region and any tropical system development. Actual May rainfall measurements will resolve this contract in early June, providing the definitive outcome against the 3-inch threshold.
- ›May contract prices decline steeply with rainfall thresholds: 87% for >3 inches dropping to 49% for >7 inches, indicating uncertainty about storm intensity rather than whether rain occurs
- ›The 24-hour volume is highest on the extreme-rainfall contract (>7 inches at $499), suggesting recent trading activity focused on heavier precipitation scenarios
- ›Houston's climatological May rainfall averages 4.5–5.5 inches, placing the 3-inch threshold near historical norms and the 7-inch threshold in the 75th percentile range
- ›Final settlement depends on official National Weather Service measurements recorded at Houston's primary station during May 1–31, 2026
- ›Runner-up contract (76% for >5 inches) implies traders see moderate precipitation as highly likely but remain split on whether May reaches well-above-average totals
What moved the line
- Jun 22Above 7 inches↓27pp82→55¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 21Above 7 inches↑17pp65→82¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 25Above 7 inches↓15pp43→28¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 24Above 7 inches↓12pp55→43¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (22% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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