Rain in Miami in Apr 2026
Leader sits at 58% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 6%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 2 inches
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
6¢
Above 7 inches
Spread
52pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$2K
modest
Closes
Jul 1, 2026
3 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Rain in Miami in Jun 2026
Analysis
Markets are pricing an exceptionally high likelihood—94%—that Miami will receive more than 2 inches of rain during June 2026. This reflects the region's strong seasonal rainfall patterns during summer months when tropical systems become more active. The contract structure reveals traders are confident in exceeding the 2-inch threshold but much less certain about heavier precipitation; prices drop sharply for 3+ inches and fall to single digits for 6+ inches. The main driver is Miami's typical wet season climatology, though actual outcomes depend on tropical cyclone activity, atmospheric patterns, and local convection during the specific month. Resolution will occur after June 30, 2026, when National Weather Service precipitation data for Miami becomes final. Key uncertainty centers on whether an active hurricane season will produce significant rain events or if normal convective rainfall suffices to reach the threshold.
- ›Miami receives an average of 9-10 inches of rain in June historically, making 2+ inches well above typical summer rainfall odds
- ›Contract pricing shows sharp probability cliffs: 94% for >2 inches, 45% for >3 inches, and 5% for >6 inches, indicating traders distinguish between routine and above-normal precipitation
- ›No scheduled tropical events are currently known, so pricing reflects seasonal base rates rather than specific forecast model signals
- ›Actual monthly totals depend on timing and intensity of convective systems throughout June 2026, creating daily volatility potential
- ›The runner-up outcome at 44% appears to be a different rain threshold or alternative outcome, diluting total probability mass across the contract set
What moved the line
- Jun 27Above 2 inches↑17pp46→63¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 22Above 2 inches↓16pp89→73¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 25Above 2 inches↓16pp67→51¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 22Above 3 inches↓16pp37→21¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 23Above 3 inches↓10pp21→11¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- What will James Talarico say during 2026 Texas Democratic Convention - Friday General Sessionlast 87% · 1d
- Will Claire Valdez be victorious in the NY-07 Democratic primary AND Brad Lander be victorious in the NY-10 Democratic primary AND Darializa Avila Chevalier be defeated in the NY-13 Democratic primary for Sep 2026last 69% · 3d
- Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be victorious in the NY-13 Democratic primary AND Alex Bores be defeated in the NY-12 Democratic primary for Sep 2026last 37% · 4d
- Who will win the 2026 D.C. Democratic Mayoral Primarylast 97% · 8d
- Louisiana Democratic Senate Primary Winnerlast 89% · 9d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.