Rain in NYC in Apr 2026
Leader sits at 44% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 32%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 1 inches
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
32¢
Above 2 inches
Spread
12pp
contested
24h volume
$1
thin orderbook
Closes
Aug 1, 2026
33 days
Venue
Kalshi
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Rain in NYC in Jul 2026
Analysis
This market prices the probability of measurable rainfall exceeding 1 inch in New York City during April 2026 at 5%, indicating traders view significant precipitation as unlikely during that month. April historically receives moderate rainfall in NYC, averaging around 4 inches, but the current low probability suggests traders are pricing in either below-average conditions or a specific dry pattern anticipated for that period. The resolution depends on official precipitation measurements from National Weather Service stations serving the NYC area. Key factors driving this assessment include seasonal weather patterns, ensemble forecasts as the month approaches, and comparison to historical April rainfall distributions. As April 2026 occurs after the current date, actual weather data will ultimately determine the outcome when the month concludes and official measurements are recorded.
- ›Historical April precipitation in NYC averages ~4 inches, making a sub-1 inch outcome less common than the 5% probability suggests
- ›Current market pricing reflects conditions well before April 2026 arrives; probability will shift substantially as seasonal forecasts update and the month approaches
- ›Official NWS precipitation totals from NYC area stations (Central Park gauge is standard) will determine resolution; no ambiguity in measurement once data is recorded
- ›The three-contract structure shows heavy concentration in the 1-inch threshold (92¢) versus 2-inch (6¢) and 3-inch (4¢), indicating trader consensus clusters around very dry outcomes
- ›Resolution occurs automatically when April 2026 concludes; this represents pure weather forecasting rather than discretionary or event-dependent uncertainty
Recently closed in general
- Will Nithya Raman beat Spencer Pratt by 1.0 to 2.0 points in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral primarylast 97% · 1d
- What will James Talarico say during 2026 Texas Democratic Convention - Friday General Sessionlast 87% · 2d
- Will Claire Valdez be victorious in the NY-07 Democratic primary AND Brad Lander be victorious in the NY-10 Democratic primary AND Darializa Avila Chevalier be defeated in the NY-13 Democratic primary for Sep 2026last 69% · 4d
- Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be victorious in the NY-13 Democratic primary AND Alex Bores be defeated in the NY-12 Democratic primary for Sep 2026last 37% · 5d
- Who will win the 2026 D.C. Democratic Mayoral Primarylast 97% · 9d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (44% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.