Winner-take-all · 4 outcomes4 contractsKalshirefreshed 1 min agoCloses Jun 1, 2026 · 23d

Rain in NYC in Apr 2026

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Leader sits at 95% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 81%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

95%

Above 1 inches

0¢runner-up 81¢leader 95¢

Outcomes

winner-take-all

Runner-up

81¢

Above 2 inches

Spread

14pp

contested

24h volume

$223

thin orderbook

Closes

Jun 1, 2026

23 days

Venue

Kalshi

4 bound

Top contract →Read as answer

30-day trend

Above 1 inches95¢Above 2 inches83¢Above 3 inches54¢

Top 3 candidates by current price · 10d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Cluster 1

Rain in NYC in May 2026

4 contracts$223

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Rain in NYC in May 2026?: Above 3 inches

KXRAINNYCM-26MAY-3

54¢+5pp$149K→

Rain in NYC in May 2026?: Above 4 inches

KXRAINNYCM-26MAY-4

28¢−2pp$44K→

Rain in NYC in May 2026?: Above 2 inches

KXRAINNYCM-26MAY-2

81¢+5pp$23K→

Rain in NYC in May 2026?: Above 1 inches

KXRAINNYCM-26MAY-1

95¢±0$7K→

What moved the line

May 6Above 3 inches↓12pp59→47¢ · Kalshi
May 6Above 4 inches↓10pp36→26¢ · Kalshi
May 3Above 3 inches↑9pp50→59¢ · Kalshi
May 2Above 3 inches↓7pp57→50¢ · Kalshi
May 2Above 2 inches↑7pp76→83¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

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