Who will be Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Season Top D/ST
Leader sits at 25% across 18 bound outcomes, runner-up at 18%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
2026-27 Season Top D/ST?: Los Angeles R D/ST
Outcomes
18
winner-take-all
Runner-up
18¢
2026-27 Season Top D/ST?: Ho
Spread
7pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Feb 1, 2027
220 days
Venue
Kalshi
18 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will be Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Season Top D/ST
Who will be Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Season Top D/ST?: Arizona D/ST
KXRANKLISTFFDST-27-ARI
Who will be Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Season Top D/ST?: Miami D/ST
KXRANKLISTFFDST-27-MIA
Who will be Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Season Top D/ST?: Las Vegas D/ST
KXRANKLISTFFDST-27-LV
Who will be Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Season Top D/ST?: Los Angeles R D/ST
KXRANKLISTFFDST-27-LAR
Who will be Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Season Top D/ST?: Los Angeles C D/ST
KXRANKLISTFFDST-27-LAC
Who will be Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Season Top D/ST?: Kansas City D/ST
KXRANKLISTFFDST-27-KC
Who will be Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Season Top D/ST?: Jacksonville D/ST
KXRANKLISTFFDST-27-JAX
Who will be Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Season Top D/ST?: Indianapolis D/ST
KXRANKLISTFFDST-27-IND
Who will be Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Season Top D/ST?: Houston D/ST
KXRANKLISTFFDST-27-HOU
Who will be Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Season Top D/ST?: Green Bay D/ST
KXRANKLISTFFDST-27-GB
Who will be Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Season Top D/ST?: Detroit D/ST
KXRANKLISTFFDST-27-DET
Who will be Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Season Top D/ST?: Denver D/ST
KXRANKLISTFFDST-27-DEN
Who will be Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Season Top D/ST?: Cleveland D/ST
KXRANKLISTFFDST-27-CLE
Who will be Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Season Top D/ST?: Chicago D/ST
KXRANKLISTFFDST-27-CHI
Who will be Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Season Top D/ST?: Carolina D/ST
KXRANKLISTFFDST-27-CAR
Who will be Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Season Top D/ST?: Buffalo D/ST
KXRANKLISTFFDST-27-BUF
Who will be Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Season Top D/ST?: Baltimore D/ST
KXRANKLISTFFDST-27-BAL
Who will be Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Season Top D/ST?: Atlanta D/ST
KXRANKLISTFFDST-27-ATL
Analysis
This market estimates the probability that a specific NFL defense/special teams unit will finish as the top-scoring fantasy asset at their position during the 2026-27 season. The 3% probability assigned to the leading contenders reflects the inherent unpredictability of season-long performance: defensive rankings depend on schedule strength, coaching changes, player health, and trade activity between now and September 2026. Currently, Seattle, Dallas, and Houston are tied as favorites, suggesting roughly equal perceived chances. The market will likely consolidate once preseason schedules are released and rosters finalize in late August 2026, introducing more concrete information about defensive line strength, secondary quality, and coaching staff. Resolution occurs after the regular season ends in January 2027, when official fantasy scoring totals determine the winner.
- ›Defensive personnel turnover and free agency signings between May 2026 and September 2026 could substantially alter roster quality for any of the three leading teams
- ›Strength of schedule variations significantly impact total fantasy points; teams facing weaker offenses accumulate sack and turnover statistics at different rates
- ›Coaching changes, including defensive coordinator hiring or scheme adjustments, affect defensive output and fantasy point generation
- ›Preseason performance and training camp reports in August 2026 will provide concrete evidence of roster improvements or injuries, likely causing probability shifts
- ›The equal 3% pricing across three different franchises suggests low confidence in differentiation; any team-specific news could create market-wide repricing
What moved the line
- Jun 222026-27 Season Top D/ST?: Houston D/ST↓8pp20→12¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 232026-27 Season Top D/ST?: Los Angeles R D/ST↓4pp29→25¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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