Will BE HER be Top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of May 2, 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 44% across 11 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
44%
11 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
11 contracts
Closes
May 11, 2026
2 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
11 clusters across 11 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will BE HER be Top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of May 16, 2026: BE HER
Cluster 2
Will Choosin' Texas be Top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of May 16, 2026: Choosin' Texas
Cluster 3
Will DAISIES be Top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of May 16, 2026: DAISIES
Will DAISIES be Top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of May 16, 2026: DAISIES
KXRANKLISTSONGTOP10-26MAY16-DAI
Cluster 4
Will Doors be Top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of May 16, 2026: Doors
Will Doors be Top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of May 16, 2026: Doors
KXRANKLISTSONGTOP10-26MAY16-DOO
Cluster 5
Will Dracula be Top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of May 16, 2026: Dracula
Will Dracula be Top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of May 16, 2026: Dracula
KXRANKLISTSONGTOP10-26MAY16-DRA
Cluster 6
Will drop dead be Top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of May 16, 2026: drop dead
Cluster 7
Will Folded be Top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of May 16, 2026: Folded
Cluster 8
Will Golden be Top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of May 16, 2026: Golden
Will Golden be Top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of May 16, 2026: Golden
KXRANKLISTSONGTOP10-26MAY16-GOL
Cluster 9
Will I CAN'T LOVE YOU ANYMORE be Top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of May 16, 2026: I CAN'T LOVE YOU ANYMORE
Cluster 10
Will I Just Might be Top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of May 16, 2026: I Just Might
Cluster 11
Will Man I Need be Top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of May 16, 2026: Man I Need
What moved the line
- May 6I Just Might↓66pp72→6¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Man I Need↓51pp57→6¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Choosin' Texas↓39pp88→49¢ · Kalshi
- May 8Folded↑24pp17→41¢ · Kalshi
- May 8BE HER↑20pp37→57¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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