Will BE HER be Top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of May 2, 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 67% across 9 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
67%
9 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$36
9 contracts
Closes
Aug 17, 2026
7 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
8 clusters across 9 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will BE HER be Top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of Aug
Cluster 2
Will Been By Now be Top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of Aug 22, 2026: Been By Now
Cluster 3
Will hate that i made you love me be Top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of Aug 22, 2026: hate that i made you love me
Cluster 4
Will I Knew It, I Knew You be Top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of Aug 22, 2026: I Knew It, I Knew You
Cluster 5
Will I Just Might be Top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of Aug 15, 2026: I Just Might
Cluster 6
Will Risk It All be Top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of Aug 15, 2026: Risk It All
Cluster 7
Will So Easy (To Fall In Love) be Top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of Aug 15, 2026: So Easy
Cluster 8
Will Boston be Top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of Aug 22, 2026: Boston
Will Boston be Top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of Aug 22, 2026: Boston
KXRANKLISTSONGTOP10-26AUG22-BOS
Analysis
The 66% probability reflects market confidence that BE HER will reach the top 10 of the Billboard Hot 100 chart during the week of May 2, 2026. This prediction is based on the song's current performance trajectory and historical chart patterns. The probability sits at a moderate-to-high level, suggesting traders believe there's meaningful uncertainty about whether the track will achieve this milestone. Chart performance depends on streaming volume, radio airplay, and sales across the tracked week. The main factor driving this level is likely the song's recent momentum and position relative to competitors in the chart cycle. Resolution occurs automatically when Billboard publishes its official chart for that specific week, removing all speculation and making this a binary outcome based on publicly available data.
- ›Song's current chart position and velocity as of mid-June 2026
- ›Competitive landscape of other releases expected during late April through early May 2026
- ›Historical streaming and radio performance trends for similar artists and track types
- ›Any scheduled promotional activity or media exposure planned for the song in the weeks preceding May 2
- ›Total volume of competing new releases and catalog songs that might displace it from top 10 positioning
What moved the line
- Aug 4So Easy (To Fall In Love)↑73pp21→94¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 3BE HER↑50pp10→60¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 4BE HER↑13pp60→73¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 7BE HER↑7pp73→80¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 7Been By Now↑6pp73→79¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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