SimpleFunctions
11 contractsKalshirefreshed 2 min agoCloses May 11, 2026 · 2d

Will BE HER be Top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of May 2, 2026

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 44% across 11 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

44%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

44%

11 contracts

Polymarket

not bound

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$0

11 contracts

Closes

May 11, 2026

2 days

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 28% (5 days, 5 points)Aggregate: 28% on 2026-05-08
Aggregate of 11 contracts · 5d

Bracket families

11 clusters across 11 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Cluster 1

Will BE HER be Top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of May 16, 2026: BE HER

1 contract$0

Cluster 2

Will Choosin' Texas be Top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of May 16, 2026: Choosin' Texas

1 contract$0

Cluster 3

Will DAISIES be Top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of May 16, 2026: DAISIES

1 contract$0

Cluster 4

Will Doors be Top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of May 16, 2026: Doors

1 contract$0

Cluster 5

Will Dracula be Top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of May 16, 2026: Dracula

1 contract$0

Cluster 6

Will drop dead be Top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of May 16, 2026: drop dead

1 contract$0

Cluster 7

Will Folded be Top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of May 16, 2026: Folded

1 contract$0

Cluster 8

Will Golden be Top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of May 16, 2026: Golden

1 contract$0

Cluster 9

Will I CAN'T LOVE YOU ANYMORE be Top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of May 16, 2026: I CAN'T LOVE YOU ANYMORE

1 contract$0

Cluster 10

Will I Just Might be Top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of May 16, 2026: I Just Might

1 contract$0

Cluster 11

Will Man I Need be Top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of May 16, 2026: Man I Need

1 contract$0

What moved the line

  • May 6I Just Might66pp726¢ · Kalshi
  • May 6Man I Need51pp576¢ · Kalshi
  • May 6Choosin' Texas39pp8849¢ · Kalshi
  • May 8Folded24pp1741¢ · Kalshi
  • May 8BE HER20pp3757¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 2 min ago.