Will Roblox Corporation report Above 170 million daily active users in fiscal 2026
Leader sits at 37% across 12 bound outcomes, runner-up at 28%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 145 million
Outcomes
12
winner-take-all
Runner-up
28¢
Above 135 billion
Spread
9pp
contested
24h volume
$25
thin orderbook
Closes
May 12, 2027
275 days
Venue
Kalshi
12 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Roblox Corporation report Above 1
Will Roblox Corporation report Above 145 million daily active users in fiscal 2026?: Above 145 million
KXRBLXA-27FEBDAU-145000000
Will Roblox Corporation report Above 150 million daily active users in fiscal 2026?: Above 150 million
KXRBLXA-27FEBDAU-150000000
Will Roblox Corporation report Above 160 billion hours engaged in fiscal 2026?: Above 160 billion
KXRBLXA-27FEBHOURS-160000000000
Will Roblox Corporation report Above 155 billion hours engaged in fiscal 2026?: Above 155 billion
KXRBLXA-27FEBHOURS-155000000000
Will Roblox Corporation report Above 150 billion hours engaged in fiscal 2026?: Above 150 billion
KXRBLXA-27FEBHOURS-150000000000
Will Roblox Corporation report Above 145 billion hours engaged in fiscal 2026?: Above 145 billion
KXRBLXA-27FEBHOURS-145000000000
Will Roblox Corporation report Above 140 billion hours engaged in fiscal 2026?: Above 140 billion
KXRBLXA-27FEBHOURS-140000000000
Will Roblox Corporation report Above 135 billion hours engaged in fiscal 2026?: Above 135 billion
KXRBLXA-27FEBHOURS-135000000000
Will Roblox Corporation report Above 170 million daily active users in fiscal 2026?: Above 170 million
KXRBLXA-27FEBDAU-170000000
Will Roblox Corporation report Above 165 million daily active users in fiscal 2026?: Above 165 million
KXRBLXA-27FEBDAU-165000000
Will Roblox Corporation report Above 160 million daily active users in fiscal 2026?: Above 160 million
KXRBLXA-27FEBDAU-160000000
Will Roblox Corporation report Above 155 million daily active users in fiscal 2026?: Above 155 million
KXRBLXA-27FEBDAU-155000000
Analysis
This market is pricing a 66% likelihood that Roblox will report above 170 million daily active users in fiscal 2026, based on trading activity across 14 related contracts. The probability reflects expectations about Roblox's user growth trajectory relative to historical performance and platform maturation. Currently, traders are more confident in the platform hitting 150 million DAU (priced at 25%) than 170 million (priced at 3%), suggesting meaningful uncertainty about whether growth will accelerate beyond recent trends. The outcome will be determined by Roblox's official fiscal 2026 earnings report, which typically arrives in early 2027. Key drivers include whether Roblox successfully expands into new geographic markets, retains user engagement across age cohorts, and executes on platform monetization improvements—all factors visible in their quarterly disclosures leading up to the final report.
- ›Roblox's most recent quarterly DAU figures and year-over-year growth rate relative to the 170 million threshold
- ›Trading volume disparity: the 170M contract trades at only 3¢ versus 25¢ for 150M, indicating concentrated skepticism about aggressive growth
- ›Historical seasonality and retention patterns in Roblox user metrics across fiscal quarters
- ›Competitive dynamics with other user-generated content platforms and their ability to retain younger demographics
- ›Roblox management guidance or forward-looking statements about engagement and user acquisition in their upcoming earnings calls
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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