Will RDU’s total passenger traffic for 2026 be above 16.50 million
Leader sits at 95% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 79%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 15.50 million
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
79¢
Above 15.75 million
Spread
16pp
contested
24h volume
$12K
liquid
Closes
—
not derived
Venue
Kalshi
6 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will RDU’s total passenger traffic for 2026 be above 1
Will RDU’s total passenger traffic for 2026 be above 15.50 million?: Above 15.50 million
KXRDUVISITS-27FEB28-T15.50
Will RDU’s total passenger traffic for 2026 be above 16.50 million?: Above 16.50 million
KXRDUVISITS-27FEB28-T16.50
Will RDU’s total passenger traffic for 2026 be above 16.00 million?: Above 16.00 million
KXRDUVISITS-27FEB28-T16.00
Will RDU’s total passenger traffic for 2026 be above 15.75 million?: Above 15.75 million
KXRDUVISITS-27FEB28-T15.75
Will RDU’s total passenger traffic for 2026 be above 16.75 million?: Above 16.75 million
KXRDUVISITS-27FEB28-T16.75
Will RDU’s total passenger traffic for 2026 be above 16.25 million?: Above 16.25 million
KXRDUVISITS-27FEB28-T16.25
Analysis
This question asks whether RDU (Raleigh-Durham International Airport) will handle more than 16.50 million passengers across 2026. The 15% probability reflects skepticism that the airport will reach this higher threshold, though markets assign 88% odds to exceeding 15.75 million. The gap between contract prices suggests markets view 15.75–16.50 million as a tight distribution zone. Passenger traffic depends on airline capacity additions, route expansions, regional economic growth, and competitive dynamics with nearby airports. Final 2026 traffic figures typically release in early 2027, though monthly reports throughout the year provide interim signals. The primary driver remains whether carriers commit incremental flights to RDU, particularly through hub growth or new market entries that boost connecting traffic.
- ›RDU's historical annual growth rates and recent traffic trends relative to 16.50 million baseline
- ›Announced airline capacity expansions or route launches scheduled for 2026
- ›Regional economic indicators affecting business and leisure travel demand in North Carolina
- ›Competition from Charlotte (CLT) and Atlanta (ATL) that may divert potential RDU passengers
- ›Actual monthly passenger counts through mid-to-late 2026 as concrete leading indicators
What moved the line
- Aug 23Above 16.25 million↓13pp20→7¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 22Above 16.50 million↓11pp16→5¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 24Above 16.00 million↓9pp55→46¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 24Above 15.75 million↓7pp87→80¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 25Above 16.00 million↓5pp46→41¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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