Real Salt Lake vs. Inter Miami CF
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 37% across 20 contracts. Kalshi at 38%, Polymarket at 27% — a 11pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
38%
18 contracts
Polymarket
27%
2 contracts
Cross-venue gap
11pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$9K
20 contracts
Top contract
65¢
$7K · Kalshi
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 38¢ · Polymarket 27¢ · 11pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (27¢, 2 contracts) and sell on Kalshi (38¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
13 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Miami Heretics win
Will Miami Heretics win the G2 Minnesota vs. Miami Heretics match?: Miami Heretics
KXCODGAME-26MAY031630G2MMH-MH
Will Miami Heretics win map 3 in the G2 Minnesota vs. Miami Heretics match?: Miami Heretics
KXCODMAP-26MAY031630G2MMH-3-MH
Will Miami Heretics win map 1 in the G2 Minnesota vs. Miami Heretics match?: Miami Heretics
KXCODMAP-26MAY031630G2MMH-1-MH
Will Miami Heretics win map 2 in the G2 Minnesota vs. Miami Heretics match?: Miami Heretics
KXCODMAP-26MAY031630G2MMH-2-MH
Cluster 2
Will G2 Minnesota win
Will G2 Minnesota win map 3 in the G2 Minnesota vs. Miami Heretics match?: G2 Minnesota
KXCODMAP-26MAY031630G2MMH-3-G2M
Will G2 Minnesota win the G2 Minnesota vs. Miami Heretics match?: G2 Minnesota
KXCODGAME-26MAY031630G2MMH-G2M
Will G2 Minnesota win map 1 in the G2 Minnesota vs. Miami Heretics match?: G2 Minnesota
KXCODMAP-26MAY031630G2MMH-1-G2M
Will G2 Minnesota win map 2 in the G2 Minnesota vs. Miami Heretics match?: G2 Minnesota
KXCODMAP-26MAY031630G2MMH-2-G2M
Cluster 3
Will Unicorns Of Love Sexy Edition win
Will Unicorns Of Love Sexy Edition win the Unicorns Of Love Sexy Edition vs. Berlin International Gaming League of Legends match?: Unicorns Of Love Sexy Edition
KXLOLGAME-26MAY051300USEBIG-USE
Will Unicorns Of Love Sexy Edition win map 2 in the Unicorns Of Love Sexy Edition vs. Berlin International Gaming match?: Unicorns Of Love Sexy Edition
KXLOLMAP-26MAY051300USEBIG-2-USE
Cluster 4
Will over 4.5 maps be played in the G2 Minnesota vs. Miami Heretics Call of Duty match
Cluster 5
Will over 3.5 maps be played in the G2 Minnesota vs. Miami Heretics Call of Duty match
Cluster 6
Where will Neymar go next
Where will Neymar go next?: Inter Miami
KXJOINCLUB-26OCT02NEYMAR-MIA
Cluster 7
MLS Cup Winner 2026: Inter Miami CF
MLS Cup Winner 2026: Inter Miami CF
0x484d3e…4ba9
Cluster 8
Will Meredith Marks be on any episode of the Real Housewives of Salt Lake before 2027
Cluster 9
Which club will Cristiano Ronaldo play for next
Which club will Cristiano Ronaldo play for next?: Real Salt Lake
0x87cc5b…4343
Cluster 10
Will Lionel Messi leave Inter Miami before Sep 15, 2026
Will Lionel Messi leave Inter Miami before Sep 15, 2026?: Lionel Messi
KXSOCCERTRANSFER-26SUM-LMES
Cluster 11
Where will Cristiano Ronaldo go next
Where will Cristiano Ronaldo go next?: Inter Miami FC
KXJOINCLUB-26OCT02CRONALDO-MIA
Cluster 12
Will over 2.5 maps be played in the Unicorns Of Love Sexy Edition vs. Berlin International Gaming League of Legends match
Cluster 13
Will Berlin International Gaming win map 1 in the Unicorns Of Love Sexy Edition vs. Berlin International Gaming match
What moved the line
- May 3Berlin International Gaming↓41pp44→3¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Over 3.5 maps↑33pp34→67¢ · Kalshi
- May 1Over 3.5 maps↑32pp2→34¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Over 3.5 maps↓31pp67→36¢ · Kalshi
- May 1Over 4.5 maps↑14pp2→16¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 7 min ago.