Real Salt Lake vs. Inter Miami CF
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 31% across 3 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
31%
3 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$281
3 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
190 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 3 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 7% of their title tokens — “Where will Neymar go next” vs “Will Meredith Marks be on any episode of the Real Housewives of Salt Lake before 2027”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Where will Neymar go next
Where will Neymar go next?: Inter Miami
KXJOINCLUB-26OCT02NEYMAR-MIA
Cluster 2
Will Meredith Marks be on any episode of the Real Housewives of Salt Lake before 2027
Cluster 3
Where will Cristiano Ronaldo go next
Where will Cristiano Ronaldo go next?: Inter Miami FC
KXJOINCLUB-26OCT02CRONALDO-MIA
Analysis
This probability represents the likelihood that Real Salt Lake defeats Inter Miami CF in an upcoming match. The 29% figure suggests oddsmakers view Inter Miami as favorites, likely reflecting recent form, roster strength, and home-field considerations. The probability would shift based on team performance leading up to the match, injuries to key players, and any lineup changes. The scheduled game date itself serves as the main catalyst that will resolve this uncertainty—once the match is played, the actual outcome will determine whether this probability assessment was calibrated correctly. Market activity on related player transfer contracts suggests limited recent trading interest in these specific outcomes.
- ›Real Salt Lake's win probability at 29% implies Inter Miami enters as substantial favorites with approximately 71% implied probability of not losing
- ›Recent team performance metrics, including goals scored, defensive record, and head-to-head historical results between these franchises would materially affect the odds
- ›Roster availability on match day, particularly injuries to starting players or suspended squad members, would trigger probability adjustments
- ›Home-field advantage or neutral venue status affects expected win probability; venue location determines baseline momentum factors
- ›Trading volume on these contracts remains minimal ($0 24h volume across top three related markets), suggesting limited recent market conviction or updated information flowing into price discovery
What moved the line
- Jun 18Meredith Marks↓4pp82→78¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 18Inter Miami↓3pp6→3¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 19Meredith Marks↑3pp78→81¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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