Real Salt Lake vs. Portland Timbers
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 40% across 12 contracts. Kalshi at 41%, Polymarket at 34% — a 7pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
41%
10 contracts
Polymarket
34%
2 contracts
Cross-venue gap
7pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$7
12 contracts
Top contract
22¢
$7 · Kalshi
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 41¢ · Polymarket 34¢ · 7pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (34¢, 2 contracts) and sell on Kalshi (41¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
5 clusters across 12 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Salt Lake at Dallas
Salt Lake at Dallas: Totals: Over 2.5 goals scored
KXMLSTOTAL-26MAY09DALRSL-2
Salt Lake at Dallas: Totals: Over 1.5 goals scored
KXMLSTOTAL-26MAY09DALRSL-1
Salt Lake at Dallas: Totals: Over 4.5 goals scored
KXMLSTOTAL-26MAY09DALRSL-4
Salt Lake at Dallas: Both Teams to Score: Both Teams To Score
KXMLSBTTS-26MAY09DALRSL
Salt Lake at Dallas: Totals: Over 3.5 goals scored
KXMLSTOTAL-26MAY09DALRSL-3
Cluster 2
Dallas vs Salt Lake Winner
Cluster 3
Which club will Cristiano Ronaldo play for next
Cluster 4
Will Meredith Marks be on any episode of the Real Housewives of Salt Lake before 2027
Cluster 5
Salt Lake wins by over 1.5 goals
Salt Lake wins by over 1.5 goals?: Salt Lake wins by over 1.5 goals
KXMLSSPREAD-26MAY09DALRSL-RSL1
What moved the line
- Apr 28Portland Timbers↑30pp0→30¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 29Portland Timbers↑19pp30→49¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Real Salt Lake↓5pp39→34¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Portland Timbers↓5pp42→37¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Portland Timbers↓5pp37→32¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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