Real Salt Lake vs. Portland Timbers
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 81% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
81%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1
1 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
192 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Meredith Marks be on any episode of the Real Housewives of Salt Lake before 2027
Analysis
This probability reflects whether Real Salt Lake will defeat Portland Timbers in an upcoming match. The 33% aggregate masks a striking divergence between Kalshi's 81% estimate and Polymarket's 10% average, suggesting fundamentally different underlying assumptions or data sources between venues. The gap likely reflects uncertainty about team form, injury status, lineup composition, or even whether the referenced match has been scheduled or postponed. Key drivers would include recent performance records, head-to-head history, home/away advantage at the stadium, and whether one venue has access to more recent team information than the other. Resolution depends on the match outcome itself, though the extreme disagreement warrants investigation into whether both venues are pricing the same event or if market participants on each platform hold materially different beliefs about team capabilities.
- ›Kalshi's 81% probability vastly exceeds Polymarket's 10%, indicating either different match context (neutral vs. away venue) or one market reflecting stale information
- ›Recent MLS standings and win-loss records for both clubs would establish baseline win probability independent of market pricing
- ›The match date and venue must be confirmed; postponements or rescheduling could invalidate current market positions
- ›Injury or roster status of key players announced before kickoff would be the most immediate catalyst shifting probabilities
- ›Historical head-to-head record and performance differential in comparable recent matches provide objective benchmarks for evaluating which market price appears miscalibrated
What moved the line
- Jun 18Meredith Marks↓4pp82→78¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 19Meredith Marks↑3pp78→81¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (81% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.