Real Salt Lake vs. Portland Timbers - More Markets

30-day trend

Analysis

This 48% probability reflects market expectations about the outcome of a Real Salt Lake versus Portland Timbers match, though the aggregated contracts suggest uncertainty about what specific event or claim is being predicted. The 34-percentage-point gap between Kalshi (71%) and Polymarket (37%) indicates significant disagreement across venues, potentially reflecting different interpretations of the resolution criteria or limited liquidity in these markets. Movement in this probability would depend on team roster changes, injury reports, or clarification of the exact prediction being priced. The resolution likely hinges on match performance or related player transfers that would conclusively determine the outcome. Given the low trading volumes shown ($0 in recent activity), prices may reflect thin liquidity rather than robust consensus forecasting, meaning small trades could shift probabilities meaningfully.

• ›The cross-venue discrepancy of 34 percentage points suggests either different market participants, varying interpretations of resolution criteria, or liquidity constraints on one or both platforms
• ›No recent trading volume ($0 over 24 hours) indicates these contracts are not actively repriced, so quoted probabilities may not reflect current information
• ›The top contracts listed reference Cristiano Ronaldo and Meredith Marks from Real Housewives, suggesting potential confusion about the underlying prediction or misalignment between contract titles and actual outcomes
• ›Kalshi's 71% probability versus Polymarket's 37% reversal hints that aggregation may be combining predictions across different resolution events or claim interpretations
• ›The low individual contract prices (27-71 cents) and zero volume suggest minimal capital is at risk, reducing confidence in the probability as a signal of genuine market belief

What moved the line

• Jun 19Meredith Marks↑3pp78→81¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds