Will 0 reconciliation bills be passed in 2027
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 48% across 2 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
48%
2 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1
2 contracts
Closes
Jan 2, 2027
238 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 2 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will 2 reconciliation bills be passed in 2027
Will 2 reconciliation bills be passed in 2027?: 2
KXRECCOUNT-27-2
Cluster 2
Will 1 reconciliation bills be passed in 2027
Will 1 reconciliation bills be passed in 2027?: 1
KXRECCOUNT-27-1
Analysis
This question asks whether Congress will pass zero reconciliation bills during 2027. At 31%, the market suggests a moderate-to-low probability of this outcome. Reconciliation bills are special legislative vehicles that require only a simple majority in the Senate, making them important tools for advancing partisan priorities. The current probability reflects expectations about congressional composition and legislative priorities after the 2026 midterm elections. Factors pushing the probability higher include potential divided government or legislative gridlock; factors pushing it lower include strong incentives for the party holding Senate control to use reconciliation for tax, spending, or healthcare measures. The main resolution catalyst will be the 2026 midterm election results, which determine chamber control and legislative capacity. Throughout 2027, each month without a passed reconciliation bill increases the likelihood of the 0-passage outcome.
- ›The party composition of Congress following the November 2026 midterm elections directly determines legislative leverage and incentive to deploy reconciliation bills
- ›Reconciliation has been used frequently since 2017; recent precedent suggests parties in power typically attempt at least one reconciliation measure for major policy goals
- ›Divided government scenarios (one party controlling House, other controlling Senate) significantly reduce the likelihood of any reconciliation passage
- ›The incoming administration's priorities and political capital in 2027 will influence whether party leaders invest effort in reconciliation-eligible legislation
- ›Economic conditions and urgent legislative demands in 2027 may necessitate reconciliation bills for time-sensitive fiscal or budget measures
What moved the line
- May 61↑8pp62→70¢ · Kalshi
- May 72↓3pp26→23¢ · Kalshi
- May 71↑3pp70→73¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (48% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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