Will Baltimore have the best regular season record in the 2026-27 season
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 5% across 7 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
5%
7 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
−1pp
11h ago
24h volume
$450
7 contracts
Closes
Feb 22, 2027
295 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
7 clusters across 7 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Buffalo have the best regular season record in the 2026-27 season
Will Buffalo have the best regular season record in the 2026-27 season?: Buffalo
KXRECORDNFLBEST-27-BUF
Cluster 2
Will Dallas have the best regular season record in the 2026-27 season
Will Dallas have the best regular season record in the 2026-27 season?: Dallas
KXRECORDNFLBEST-27-DAL
Cluster 3
Will Philadelphia have the best regular season record in the 2026-27 season
Will Philadelphia have the best regular season record in the 2026-27 season?: Philadelphia
KXRECORDNFLBEST-27-PHI
Cluster 4
Will New England have the best regular season record in the 2026-27 season
Will New England have the best regular season record in the 2026-27 season?: New England
KXRECORDNFLBEST-27-NE
Cluster 5
Will Denver have the best regular season record in the 2026-27 season
Will Denver have the best regular season record in the 2026-27 season?: Denver
KXRECORDNFLBEST-27-DEN
Cluster 6
Will Baltimore have the best regular season record in the 2026-27 season
Will Baltimore have the best regular season record in the 2026-27 season?: Baltimore
KXRECORDNFLBEST-27-BAL
Cluster 7
Will Detroit have the best regular season record in the 2026-27 season
Will Detroit have the best regular season record in the 2026-27 season?: Detroit
KXRECORDNFLBEST-27-DET
Analysis
This probability represents the likelihood that the Baltimore Orioles will finish the 2026-27 MLB regular season with the best record in baseball. At 6%, the market reflects skepticism about Baltimore achieving this outcome, suggesting traders view other franchises as more competitive. The assessment likely weighs Baltimore's recent performance trajectory, roster composition, and competitive positioning within the American League East. Key factors driving the current probability include the strength of competing teams—particularly the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Yankees, who show higher implied probabilities—and Baltimore's historical consistency relative to division rivals. The main resolution point will be the conclusion of the 2026-27 regular season schedule, when final win-loss records determine the outcome. Market movements could shift substantially based on upcoming offseason transactions, spring training performance, and early-season results that signal roster strength and coaching effectiveness.
- ›Baltimore's implied win probability (6%) significantly lags Los Angeles (29%) and New York (14%), indicating the market perceives Baltimore as the third-strongest challenger in the AL East
- ›Historical regular season performance of Baltimore versus AL East rivals and other MLB teams establishes baseline expectations for record quality
- ›Offseason roster moves, free agent acquisitions, and trades completed before the 2026-27 season will directly affect competitive position and win projections
- ›Early-season performance through the first month will provide empirical data to validate or contradict preseason expectations about team strength
- ›Injury status of key position players, pitchers, and management changes heading into the season represent concrete variables affecting win totals
What moved the line
- May 1Detroit↓8pp10→2¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 29Detroit↑6pp2→8¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 28Detroit↓4pp6→2¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 7 min ago.