Will Baltimore have the best regular season record in the 2026-27 season

30-day trend

Analysis

This contract reflects the likelihood that Baltimore finishes the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the best record among all 32 teams. At 6%, the market assigns Baltimore relatively low odds compared to favorites like Los Angeles and Houston, suggesting forecasters believe other teams have stronger rosters or coaching advantages. The probability depends primarily on Baltimore's offseason acquisitions, injury management, and divisional competition strength. The 2026-27 regular season (starting September 2026) will definitively resolve this contract, as final records are objective and verifiable. Baltimore's current standing reflects baseline expectations; significant free-agent signings, draft success, or quarterback performance changes could shift the probability materially in either direction.

• ›Baltimore's 2026 offseason roster moves, particularly at quarterback and defensive positions, relative to competitor acquisitions
• ›The health status of key players entering the 2026-07 season, especially any prior injuries affecting offensive or defensive core contributors
• ›Division strength within the AFC North, as divisional performance affects relative record difficulty and strength-of-schedule
• ›Los Angeles R's current 13¢ probability indicates market confidence in an alternative favorite; Baltimore would need to outperform that baseline competitor
• ›Historical playoff seeding and performance trends for Baltimore under current coaching regime versus other contenders

What moved the line

• Sep 11Los Angeles R↓8pp14→6¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 10Seattle↓4pp6→2¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 11Seattle↑4pp2→6¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 11Dallas↓3pp4→1¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 11Green Bay↓3pp5→2¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds