What will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. say during Health Subcommittee
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 35% across 5 contracts. Kalshi at 41%, Polymarket at 26% — a 15pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
41%
3 contracts
Polymarket
26%
2 contracts
Cross-venue gap
15pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$4K
5 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2028
563 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 41¢ · Polymarket 26¢ · 15pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (26¢, 2 contracts) and sell on Kalshi (41¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
4 clusters across 5 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 11% of their title tokens — “Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr” vs “Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leaves HHS Secretary in before 2027?: Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-RFK
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. attend any White House press briefing which takes place in the James S. Brady Press Briefing Room?: Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
KXWHPRESSBRIEFING-RFK
Cluster 2
Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027
Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?: Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
0xbb0d24…560f
Cluster 3
Who will announce Presidential run before 2027
Who will announce Presidential run before 2027?: Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
0xf7f9d3…5d2c
Cluster 4
Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028
Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?: Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
KX2028RRUN-28-RFK
Analysis
This probability reflects the market's estimate that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will make a specific statement during an upcoming Health Subcommittee hearing. The current 38% level sits between two distinct viewpoints: Kalshi contracts averaging 45% suggest moderate confidence in the event occurring, while Polymarket contracts at 29% reflect greater skepticism. The divergence may reflect uncertainty about which specific statement qualifies, timing of the hearing, or RFK Jr.'s participation. The primary driver is whether a scheduled Health Subcommittee hearing occurs and whether RFK Jr. appears and speaks on expected topics related to his HHS role. Resolution depends on the hearing date and what constitutes a qualifying statement—factors that create the 16-percentage-point spread between venues.
- ›Scheduled date and confirmed participation of RFK Jr. in a Health Subcommittee hearing
- ›Definition of what constitutes a qualifying statement during testimony
- ›Volume differential between venues ($17,936 on Kalshi vs. $339 on Polymarket suggests unequal liquidity and potentially different market compositions
- ›Related contract pricing on RFK Jr.'s tenure at HHS (55¢ on Kalshi) may indicate underlying concerns about his continued role
- ›Absence of recent trading activity on some related contracts ($0 volume) suggests potential information gaps or low trader interest
What moved the line
- Jun 12Robert F. Kennedy Jr.↑13pp27→40¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 13Robert F. Kennedy Jr.↑11pp35→46¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 13Robert F. Kennedy Jr.↑7pp40→47¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 14Robert F. Kennedy Jr.↑6pp46→52¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 15Robert F. Kennedy Jr.↓6pp52→46¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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