Will Rhode Island’s average residential electricity price for 2026 be above 30.0¢/kWh

30-day trend

Analysis

Markets estimate an 81% chance that Rhode Island's average residential electricity price will exceed 28.5¢/kWh for 2026, with successively lower probabilities for higher price thresholds (22% for above 30¢/kWh). This reflects expectations about regional power supply costs, grid infrastructure investments, and fuel market dynamics. The probability distribution suggests most traders expect prices in the 28.5–30¢/kWh range rather than extreme highs or lows. Key drivers include natural gas prices, renewable energy deployment rates in New England, and regulatory decisions affecting utility rates. The 2026 year-end electricity rate data release—typically available in early 2027—will definitively resolve these contracts. Current market confidence in prices staying above 28.5¢/kWh but below 30.5¢/kWh indicates traders view near-term supply-demand fundamentals as relatively tight but not severely constrained.

• ›Natural gas pricing: Regional wholesale power costs are heavily influenced by Henry Hub futures and LNG export dynamics; a sustained drop in gas prices could push Rhode Island rates below consensus forecasts
• ›New England renewable capacity additions: Solar and offshore wind installations scheduled for 2025–2026 affect net electricity demand and marginal pricing; construction delays or accelerations would shift rate trajectories
• ›Federal and state rate-setting decisions: Public Utilities Commission rulings on rate cases and cost-of-service recovery directly determine residential bills; regulatory changes could add or subtract several cents per kWh
• ›Historical baseline: Rhode Island's 2024–2025 residential rates provide context; rates have averaged in the mid-to-high 20¢/kWh range, making 28.5¢ a modest increase rather than an anomaly
• ›Seasonal and weather volatility: Demand spikes during winter and summer peak periods influence annual averages; an unusually cold 2026 winter would pressure prices upward

What moved the line

• Aug 19Above 28.5¢/kWh↑19pp63→82¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 23Above 28.5¢/kWh↑19pp66→85¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 20Above 28.5¢/kWh↓16pp82→66¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 23Above 29.5¢/kWh↑10pp37→47¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 19Above 29.0¢/kWh↑10pp52→62¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds