Will Tulsi Gabbard go on the Joe Rogan Experience before Jan 1, 2027
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 15% across 17 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
15%
17 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$14
17 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
129 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
17 clusters across 17 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Hunter Biden go on the Joe Rogan Experience before Jan 1, 2027
Will Hunter Biden go on the Joe Rogan Experience before Jan 1, 2027?: Hunter Biden
KXROGANGUEST-27JAN01-HUN
Cluster 2
Will Sam Altman go on the Joe Rogan Experience before Jan 1, 2027
Will Sam Altman go on the Joe Rogan Experience before Jan 1, 2027?: Sam Altman
KXROGANGUEST-27JAN01-SA
Cluster 3
Will Clavicular go on the Joe Rogan Experience before Jan 1, 2027
Will Clavicular go on the Joe Rogan Experience before Jan 1, 2027?: Clavicular
KXROGANGUEST-27JAN01-CLA
Cluster 4
Will Barack Obama go on the Joe Rogan Experience before Jan 1, 2027
Will Barack Obama go on the Joe Rogan Experience before Jan 1, 2027?: Barack Obama
KXROGANGUEST-27JAN01-BO
Cluster 5
Will Kamala Harris go on the Joe Rogan Experience before Jan 1, 2027
Will Kamala Harris go on the Joe Rogan Experience before Jan 1, 2027?: Kamala Harris
KXROGANGUEST-27JAN01-KH
Cluster 6
Will Donald Trump go on the Joe Rogan Experience before Jan 1, 2027
Will Donald Trump go on the Joe Rogan Experience before Jan 1, 2027?: Donald Trump
KXROGANGUEST-27JAN01-DJT
Cluster 7
Will Vivek Ramaswamy go on the Joe Rogan Experience before Jan 1, 2027
Will Vivek Ramaswamy go on the Joe Rogan Experience before Jan 1, 2027?: Vivek Ramaswamy
KXROGANGUEST-27JAN01-VR
Cluster 8
Will David Sacks go on the Joe Rogan Experience before Jan 1, 2027
Will David Sacks go on the Joe Rogan Experience before Jan 1, 2027?: David Sacks
KXROGANGUEST-27JAN01-DS
Cluster 9
Will Bill Ackman go on the Joe Rogan Experience before Jan 1, 2027
Will Bill Ackman go on the Joe Rogan Experience before Jan 1, 2027?: Bill Ackman
KXROGANGUEST-27JAN01-BA
Cluster 10
Will Kanye West go on the Joe Rogan Experience before Jan 1, 2027
Will Kanye West go on the Joe Rogan Experience before Jan 1, 2027?: Kanye West
KXROGANGUEST-27JAN01-KW
Cluster 11
Will Jeff Bezos go on the Joe Rogan Experience before Jan 1, 2027
Will Jeff Bezos go on the Joe Rogan Experience before Jan 1, 2027?: Jeff Bezos
KXROGANGUEST-27JAN01-JEF
Cluster 12
Will Tulsi Gabbard go on the Joe Rogan Experience before Jan 1, 2027
Will Tulsi Gabbard go on the Joe Rogan Experience before Jan 1, 2027?: Tulsi Gabbard
KXROGANGUEST-27JAN01-TUL
Cluster 13
Will Bernie Sanders go on the Joe Rogan Experience before Jan 1, 2027
Will Bernie Sanders go on the Joe Rogan Experience before Jan 1, 2027?: Bernie Sanders
KXROGANGUEST-27JAN01-BER
Cluster 14
Will Michael Saylor go on the Joe Rogan Experience before Jan 1, 2027
Will Michael Saylor go on the Joe Rogan Experience before Jan 1, 2027?: Michael Saylor
KXROGANGUEST-27JAN01-MIC
Cluster 15
Will Alex Jones go on the Joe Rogan Experience before Jan 1, 2027
Will Alex Jones go on the Joe Rogan Experience before Jan 1, 2027?: Alex Jones
KXROGANGUEST-27JAN01-ALE
Cluster 16
Will Zohran Mamdani go on the Joe Rogan Experience before Jan 1, 2027
Will Zohran Mamdani go on the Joe Rogan Experience before Jan 1, 2027?: Zohran Mamdani
KXROGANGUEST-27JAN01-ZOH
Cluster 17
Will Drake go on the Joe Rogan Experience before Jan 1, 2027
Will Drake go on the Joe Rogan Experience before Jan 1, 2027?: Drake
KXROGANGUEST-27JAN01-DRA
Analysis
This contract asks whether Tulsi Gabbard will appear on the Joe Rogan Experience podcast before the end of 2026, with current odds suggesting a 16% probability. The relatively low probability reflects both the limited time remaining (about five months) and the uncertain willingness of either party to schedule an appearance. Key factors include Gabbard's current role and public schedule, her historical relationship with the podcast, Rogan's guest selection patterns, and any scheduling conflicts. The probability could shift significantly if either Gabbard or Rogan publicly indicates interest in a conversation, or if a major news event increases demand for such an appearance. With only half a year remaining, time becomes an increasingly constraining factor as the January 1, 2027 resolution date approaches.
- ›Tulsi Gabbard's current government or political role and public availability to commit to a lengthy podcast appearance
- ›The frequency of new Joe Rogan Experience episodes released and his typical guest booking patterns in recent months
- ›Any public statements from either Gabbard or Rogan's team indicating interest or scheduling constraints for such an appearance
- ›Comparable guest appearance rates for other political figures with similar prominence in the 2026 timeframe
- ›The typical lead time between guest booking and episode release for the Joe Rogan Experience
What moved the line
- Aug 20Vivek Ramaswamy↓15pp56→41¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 18Vivek Ramaswamy↑12pp37→49¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 21Vivek Ramaswamy↓9pp41→32¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 19Vivek Ramaswamy↑7pp49→56¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 18Hunter Biden↑6pp22→28¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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