Will Tulsi Gabbard go on the Joe Rogan Experience before Jan 1, 2027
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 17% across 18 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
17%
18 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$843
18 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
237 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
18 clusters across 18 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Kanye West go on the Joe Rogan Experience before Jan 1, 2027
Will Kanye West go on the Joe Rogan Experience before Jan 1, 2027?: Kanye West
KXROGANGUEST-27JAN01-KW
Cluster 2
Will Vivek Ramaswamy go on the Joe Rogan Experience before Jan 1, 2027
Will Vivek Ramaswamy go on the Joe Rogan Experience before Jan 1, 2027?: Vivek Ramaswamy
KXROGANGUEST-27JAN01-VR
Cluster 3
Will Alex Jones go on the Joe Rogan Experience before Jan 1, 2027
Will Alex Jones go on the Joe Rogan Experience before Jan 1, 2027?: Alex Jones
KXROGANGUEST-27JAN01-ALE
Cluster 4
Will Bernie Sanders go on the Joe Rogan Experience before Jan 1, 2027
Will Bernie Sanders go on the Joe Rogan Experience before Jan 1, 2027?: Bernie Sanders
KXROGANGUEST-27JAN01-BER
Cluster 5
Will Barack Obama go on the Joe Rogan Experience before Jan 1, 2027
Will Barack Obama go on the Joe Rogan Experience before Jan 1, 2027?: Barack Obama
KXROGANGUEST-27JAN01-BO
Cluster 6
Will Kamala Harris go on the Joe Rogan Experience before Jan 1, 2027
Will Kamala Harris go on the Joe Rogan Experience before Jan 1, 2027?: Kamala Harris
KXROGANGUEST-27JAN01-KH
Cluster 7
Will Donald Trump go on the Joe Rogan Experience before Jan 1, 2027
Will Donald Trump go on the Joe Rogan Experience before Jan 1, 2027?: Donald Trump
KXROGANGUEST-27JAN01-DJT
Cluster 8
Will Sam Altman go on the Joe Rogan Experience before Jan 1, 2027
Will Sam Altman go on the Joe Rogan Experience before Jan 1, 2027?: Sam Altman
KXROGANGUEST-27JAN01-SA
Cluster 9
Will David Sacks go on the Joe Rogan Experience before Jan 1, 2027
Will David Sacks go on the Joe Rogan Experience before Jan 1, 2027?: David Sacks
KXROGANGUEST-27JAN01-DS
Cluster 10
Will Bill Ackman go on the Joe Rogan Experience before Jan 1, 2027
Will Bill Ackman go on the Joe Rogan Experience before Jan 1, 2027?: Bill Ackman
KXROGANGUEST-27JAN01-BA
Cluster 11
Will Joe Biden go on the Joe Rogan Experience before Jan 1, 2027
Will Joe Biden go on the Joe Rogan Experience before Jan 1, 2027?: Joe Biden
KXROGANGUEST-27JAN01-JOE
Cluster 12
Will Jeff Bezos go on the Joe Rogan Experience before Jan 1, 2027
Will Jeff Bezos go on the Joe Rogan Experience before Jan 1, 2027?: Jeff Bezos
KXROGANGUEST-27JAN01-JEF
Cluster 13
Will Tulsi Gabbard go on the Joe Rogan Experience before Jan 1, 2027
Will Tulsi Gabbard go on the Joe Rogan Experience before Jan 1, 2027?: Tulsi Gabbard
KXROGANGUEST-27JAN01-TUL
Cluster 14
Will Michael Saylor go on the Joe Rogan Experience before Jan 1, 2027
Will Michael Saylor go on the Joe Rogan Experience before Jan 1, 2027?: Michael Saylor
KXROGANGUEST-27JAN01-MIC
Cluster 15
Will Zohran Mamdani go on the Joe Rogan Experience before Jan 1, 2027
Will Zohran Mamdani go on the Joe Rogan Experience before Jan 1, 2027?: Zohran Mamdani
KXROGANGUEST-27JAN01-ZOH
Cluster 16
Will Hunter Biden go on the Joe Rogan Experience before Jan 1, 2027
Will Hunter Biden go on the Joe Rogan Experience before Jan 1, 2027?: Hunter Biden
KXROGANGUEST-27JAN01-HUN
Cluster 17
Will Drake go on the Joe Rogan Experience before Jan 1, 2027
Will Drake go on the Joe Rogan Experience before Jan 1, 2027?: Drake
KXROGANGUEST-27JAN01-DRA
Cluster 18
Will Clavicular go on the Joe Rogan Experience before Jan 1, 2027
Will Clavicular go on the Joe Rogan Experience before Jan 1, 2027?: Clavicular
KXROGANGUEST-27JAN01-CLA
Analysis
This contract estimates a 20% chance that Tulsi Gabbard will appear on the Joe Rogan Experience podcast before the end of 2026. The probability reflects her current role as Director of National Intelligence and her public profile, balanced against the relatively low baseline rate of cabinet members appearing on the show. Market activity suggests traders are pricing in some uncertainty about her tenure duration—related contracts show elevated probability that she could announce her departure before summer 2026. Her appearance would depend on scheduling decisions made by both her office and the podcast, which are not predictable from public information. The main factors are whether she remains in office through year-end, her willingness to do media appearances while serving in intelligence roles, and the logistics of coordinating with Rogan's production schedule. The resolution will be definitive only after December 31, 2026.
- ›Gabbard's tenure duration matters significantly: related markets price a 30-44% chance she departs before July 2026, which would affect both her ability and incentive to appear
- ›Cabinet-level intelligence officials rarely appear on unstructured podcasts due to operational security protocols and communications restrictions
- ›Rogan's guest list has included political figures and administration officials, but appearance rates are irregular and difficult to forecast
- ›Gabbard's prior media engagement patterns as a congresswoman and candidate could inform but don't guarantee future behavior in a sensitive intelligence role
- ›The 7-month window provides multiple scheduling opportunities, but no scheduled events or announcements currently indicate imminent appearance likelihood
What moved the line
- May 7Jeff Bezos↑8pp14→22¢ · Kalshi
- May 7Vivek Ramaswamy↑6pp37→43¢ · Kalshi
- May 8Vivek Ramaswamy↑6pp43→49¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Alex Jones↓3pp19→16¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- What will Donald Trump say during CNBClast 95% · 1d
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: D Senate, R Houselast 3% · 1d
- Will any member of Trump's Cabinet leave before Aug 2026last 85% · 1d
- What will any participating candidate say during South Carolina GOP gubernatorial debatenolast 7% · 1d
- FC Gifu vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC - More Marketslast 74% · 2d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 2 min ago.