Will Olivia Rodrigo be a Headliner at Coachella 2027
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 14% across 8 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
14%
8 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$243
8 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2027
508 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
8 clusters across 8 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Justin Bieber be a Headliner at Coachella 2027
Will Justin Bieber be a Headliner at Coachella 2027?: Justin Bieber
KXROLEATEVENTCOACHELLA-27DEC31-JUS
Cluster 2
Will Miley Cyrus be a Headliner at Coachella 2027
Will Miley Cyrus be a Headliner at Coachella 2027?: Miley Cyrus
KXROLEATEVENTCOACHELLA-27DEC31-MIL
Cluster 3
Will Olivia Dean be a Headliner at Coachella 2027
Will Olivia Dean be a Headliner at Coachella 2027?: Olivia Dean
KXROLEATEVENTCOACHELLA-27DEC31-OLI
Cluster 4
Will Taylor Swift be a Headliner at Coachella 2027
Will Taylor Swift be a Headliner at Coachella 2027?: Taylor Swift
KXROLEATEVENTCOACHELLA-27DEC31-TAY
Cluster 5
Will Radiohead be a Headliner at Coachella 2027
Will Radiohead be a Headliner at Coachella 2027?: Radiohead
KXROLEATEVENTCOACHELLA-27DEC31-RAD
Cluster 6
Will Drake be a Headliner at Coachella 2027
Will Drake be a Headliner at Coachella 2027?: Drake
KXROLEATEVENTCOACHELLA-27DEC31-DRA
Cluster 7
Will Ariana Grande be a Headliner at Coachella 2027
Will Ariana Grande be a Headliner at Coachella 2027?: Ariana Grande
KXROLEATEVENTCOACHELLA-27DEC31-ARI
Cluster 8
Will Bad Bunny be a Headliner at Coachella 2027
Will Bad Bunny be a Headliner at Coachella 2027?: Bad Bunny
KXROLEATEVENTCOACHELLA-27DEC31-BAD
Analysis
This probability reflects whether Olivia Rodrigo will secure a headlining slot at Coachella 2027, estimated at 13%. Headliner selection depends on an artist's current commercial momentum, tour schedule availability, and festival booking decisions typically made 6-12 months in advance. Key considerations include whether Rodrigo releases new material that maintains her market presence, her touring commitments during spring 2027, and Coachella's headliner announcement timing—typically occurring in late 2026 or early 2027. At 13%, the market suggests significant uncertainty about her headliner-tier status two years out, weighing against her strong streaming numbers and past album performance but accounting for typical festival rotation patterns and competition from other major artists.
- ›Release and commercial performance of any new Olivia Rodrigo album or major singles between now and late 2026, which would signal her relevance for festival booking
- ›Coachella's official headliner lineup announcement, expected in late 2026 or January 2027, which directly resolves the outcome
- ›Rodrigo's touring schedule commitments in April 2027, which would determine her availability for a headlining performance
- ›Historical precedent showing her past performance at major festivals and whether festivals typically re-book artists in consecutive years or with longer gaps
- ›Commercial performance metrics including streaming numbers, chart performance, and social media engagement through 2026
What moved the line
- Aug 9Miley Cyrus↑16pp12→28¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 10Miley Cyrus↑11pp28→39¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 8Miley Cyrus↑3pp9→12¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 5Radiohead↑3pp33→36¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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