SimpleFunctions
7 source contracts·Kalshi 7·refreshed just now·Closes Jan 1, 2027 · 211d

Will Harry Styles be on the cover of Rolling Stone in 2026

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 28% across 7 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

28%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

28%

7 contracts

Polymarket

not bound

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$775

7 contracts

Closes

Jan 1, 2027

211 days

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 43% (23 days, 23 points)Aggregate: 43% on 2026-06-04
Aggregate of 7 contracts · 23d

Bracket families

7 clusters across 7 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Cluster 1

Will Charli XCX be on the cover of Rolling Stone in 2026

1 contract$764

Cluster 2

Will Bad Bunny be on the cover of Rolling Stone in 2026

1 contract$11

Cluster 3

Will Ariana Grande be on the cover of Rolling Stone in 2026

1 contract$0

Cluster 4

Will Harry Styles be on the cover of Rolling Stone in 2026

1 contract$0

Cluster 5

Will Leonardo DiCaprio be on the cover of Rolling Stone in 2026

1 contract$0

Cluster 6

Will Taylor Swift be on the cover of Rolling Stone in 2026

1 contract$0

Cluster 7

Will Timothée Chalamet be on the cover of Rolling Stone in 2026

1 contract$0

Analysis

This contract measures whether Harry Styles will appear on a Rolling Stone magazine cover at any point during 2026. At 30%, the market indicates this outcome is considered unlikely but not improbable. The probability reflects uncertainty about Styles' 2026 release schedule and media prominence. Factors influencing this level include whether he releases new music this year (which would increase visibility and likelihood of a cover feature) and Rolling Stone's editorial decisions regarding cover subjects. The main catalyst would be confirmation of a 2026 album or major project announcement, which would significantly shift expectations. Additionally, any major touring plans or career developments announced in the coming months could materially affect the probability. The contract resolves when 2026 ends based on whether Styles appeared on Rolling Stone's cover during that calendar year.

  • Harry Styles has not announced a 2026 album or major project as of early May 2026, limiting near-term catalyst for a cover feature
  • Rolling Stone covers are typically tied to album releases, tour announcements, or major career moments rather than routine artist coverage
  • The market probability of 30% implies roughly 7 in 10 odds against this outcome, suggesting traders view it as dependent on unrealized events
  • Previous Styles cover appearances on Rolling Stone occurred during album release cycles and peak promotional periods
  • The contract has inherent resolution clarity—any Rolling Stone cover featuring Styles during 2026 definitively resolves the question affirmatively

What moved the line

  • May 30Bad Bunny18pp5840¢ · Kalshi
  • Jun 4Charli XCX6pp4046¢ · Kalshi
  • May 30Taylor Swift6pp3327¢ · Kalshi
  • May 30Charli XCX5pp4439¢ · Kalshi
  • May 29Bad Bunny4pp5458¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

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