Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.29% on Jul 13, 2026
Leader sits at 97% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 88%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
4.1% or above
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
88¢
4.15% or above
Spread
9pp
contested
24h volume
$243
thin orderbook
Closes
—
not derived
Venue
Kalshi
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4
Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.14% on Jul 13, 2026?: 4.15% or above
KXUST2AD-26JUL13-T4.14
Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.09% on Jul 13, 2026?: 4.1% or above
KXUST2AD-26JUL13-T4.09
Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.24% on Jul 13, 2026?: 4.25% or above
KXUST2AD-26JUL13-T4.24
Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.29% on Jul 13, 2026?: 4.3% or above
KXUST2AD-26JUL13-T4.29
Analysis
This market is pricing a 96% probability that the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield will close above 4.09% on July 13, 2026—tomorrow. The steep decline in contract prices as thresholds rise (from 96¢ at 4.09% to just 4¢ at 4.29%) indicates traders expect the yield to stay in a narrow range slightly above 4.09%, with very low odds of reaching 4.29% or higher. The current level reflects recent Federal Reserve communications, inflation data, and market expectations for short-term rates. Any significant overnight economic data, Fed commentary, or unexpected market moves could shift the yield materially. The resolution depends entirely on where the 2-year yield settles at market close tomorrow, making this a near-term event with minimal time for new information to emerge.
- ›Current 2Y yield level relative to 4.09% threshold: closer observation of intraday moves and overnight futures trading suggests where market-close positioning will land
- ›Recent Fed communications and rate expectations: any signals about future policy moves could shift near-term yield trajectories
- ›Overnight international markets and global rate movements: activity in Asian and European fixed-income markets can influence opening levels on U.S. markets
- ›Incoming U.S. economic data or central bank statements between now and market close: inflation, employment, or policy signals would be the primary catalyst for yield movement
- ›Volume concentration in 4.09%–4.14% contracts vs. extreme thinness at 4.29%: suggests consensus cluster rather than true tail-risk pricing
What moved the line
- Jul 114.1% or above↑27pp66→93¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 114.25% or above↓13pp27→14¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 114.3% or above↓10pp14→4¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 124.25% or above↑8pp14→22¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 114.15% or above↑4pp66→70¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in fed rate
- Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.44% on Jul 13, 2026last 90% · 0d
- Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.99% on Jul 13, 2026last 84% · 0d
- Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.24% on Jul 13, 2026last 84% · 0d
- Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.24% on Jul 13, 2026last 92% · 0d
- What are the odds of a Fed rate cut?last 53% · 2d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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