In the Grey Rotten Tomatoes score

30-day trend

Analysis

The 62% probability reflects market expectations that an upcoming film titled 'In the Grey' will receive a Rotten Tomatoes score in a specified range, likely between 75-77 points based on the contract structure. The prediction is primarily driven by sentiment around the film's production quality, cast, and director relative to comparable releases in its genre. Market participants are pricing in moderate confidence rather than high certainty, suggesting mixed signals about the film's critical reception. The main catalyst will be the film's release and subsequent critic reviews, which typically accumulate within the first week and stabilize the Rotten Tomatoes score. Trading volume patterns show the broader 75+ threshold has much higher conviction (97¢) compared to the tighter 77+ range (41¢), indicating disagreement about whether the film will reach higher critical acclaim. Resolution depends entirely on how professional critics rate the finished film upon theatrical or platform release.

• ›The distribution of contract prices shows declining conviction at higher score thresholds, with 75+ at 97¢ versus 77+ at 41¢, indicating uncertainty about whether the film exceeds modest critical expectations
• ›Recent comparable films in the same genre or from the same studio provide baseline data for typical critical reception patterns and score ranges
• ›Production details such as director track record, cast pedigree, and reported budget level historically correlate with critical reception outcomes
• ›The film's scheduled release date and critic screening policies will determine the speed and completeness of Rotten Tomatoes score accumulation
• ›Trading volume concentration in 2-3 specific contracts suggests some contracts lack sufficient market depth to reflect genuine probability estimates

What moved the line

• Jun 23Above 45↓70pp98→28¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 24Above 55↓47pp79→32¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 24Above 45↑41pp28→69¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 18Above 45↑31pp65→96¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 25Above 45↑26pp69→95¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds