In the Grey Rotten Tomatoes score
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 60% across 11 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
60%
11 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$99K
11 contracts
Closes
Jun 8, 2026
30 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 11 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Mortal Kombat II Rotten Tomatoes score
Mortal Kombat II Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 60
KXRT-MOR-60
Mortal Kombat II Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 65
KXRT-MOR-65
Mortal Kombat II Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 67
KXRT-MOR-67
Mortal Kombat II Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 64
KXRT-MOR-64
Mortal Kombat II Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 62
KXRT-MOR-62
Cluster 2
The Sheep Detectives Rotten Tomatoes score
Cluster 3
Billie Eilish - Hit Me Hard and Soft: The Tour (Live in 3D) Rotten Tomatoes score
Cluster 4
Masters of the Universe Rotten Tomatoes score
Masters of the Universe Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 50
KXRT-MAS-50
Analysis
The 62% probability reflects market expectations that an upcoming film titled 'In the Grey' will receive a Rotten Tomatoes score in a specified range, likely between 75-77 points based on the contract structure. The prediction is primarily driven by sentiment around the film's production quality, cast, and director relative to comparable releases in its genre. Market participants are pricing in moderate confidence rather than high certainty, suggesting mixed signals about the film's critical reception. The main catalyst will be the film's release and subsequent critic reviews, which typically accumulate within the first week and stabilize the Rotten Tomatoes score. Trading volume patterns show the broader 75+ threshold has much higher conviction (97¢) compared to the tighter 77+ range (41¢), indicating disagreement about whether the film will reach higher critical acclaim. Resolution depends entirely on how professional critics rate the finished film upon theatrical or platform release.
- ›The distribution of contract prices shows declining conviction at higher score thresholds, with 75+ at 97¢ versus 77+ at 41¢, indicating uncertainty about whether the film exceeds modest critical expectations
- ›Recent comparable films in the same genre or from the same studio provide baseline data for typical critical reception patterns and score ranges
- ›Production details such as director track record, cast pedigree, and reported budget level historically correlate with critical reception outcomes
- ›The film's scheduled release date and critic screening policies will determine the speed and completeness of Rotten Tomatoes score accumulation
- ›Trading volume concentration in 2-3 specific contracts suggests some contracts lack sufficient market depth to reflect genuine probability estimates
What moved the line
- May 6The Tour (Live in 3D) Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 87↑63pp25→88¢ · Kalshi
- May 7The Tour (Live in 3D) Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 87↓40pp88→48¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Above 92↑39pp35→74¢ · Kalshi
- May 7The Tour (Live in 3D) Rotten Tomatoes score?: Above 90↓38pp75→37¢ · Kalshi
- May 7Above 60↑33pp61→94¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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