In the Grey Rotten Tomatoes score

30-day trend

Analysis

The Odyssey's Rotten Tomatoes score is projected at 55% probability of landing in a specific range, based on aggregated market pricing across multiple threshold contracts. The distribution of contract prices suggests traders expect the film to achieve a reasonably strong critical reception, with significantly higher probability of exceeding 85 than exceeding 95. The primary drivers of this mid-range forecast appear to be limited advanced reviews or early screening data currently available, combined with baseline expectations for the film's genre and production pedigree. Resolution will occur upon the film's official release and the aggregation of critic reviews on Rotten Tomatoes, which typically stabilizes within days of theatrical distribution. Market participants are pricing in meaningful uncertainty, reflected in the wide spread between upper and lower threshold contracts.

• ›Contract prices show 96% probability of scoring above 85, but only 22% probability above 95, indicating consensus around 85-95 range rather than critical acclaim outliers
• ›The 55% aggregate probability reflects relatively balanced expectations with no strong directional conviction, suggesting limited definitive information about the final critical consensus
• ›Volume concentration in the 85+ contracts ($28,974 24h vol) versus extreme thresholds indicates most trading activity clusters around near-consensus outcomes
• ›Time to resolution depends on The Odyssey's theatrical release date and Rotten Tomatoes aggregation speed, making the actual release date a key upcoming catalyst
• ›The gap between 90+ (82%) and 87+ (93%) contracts reveals specific probability clustering, suggesting traders see meaningful distinction at moderate thresholds

What moved the line

• Aug 21Above 65↑51pp23→74¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 20Above 65↓49pp72→23¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 20Above 60↓33pp59→26¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 20Above 70↓31pp47→16¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 21Above 60↑25pp26→51¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds