Will Carlos Vila Nova win the 2026 São Toméan presidential election
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 5% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
5%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
1 contracts
Closes
Jul 19, 2027
362 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Eugénio Tiny win the 2026 São Toméan presidential election
Will Eugénio Tiny win the 2026 São Toméan presidential election?: Eugénio Tiny
KXSAOTOMEPRES-26JUL19-ETIN
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that incumbent Carlos Vila Nova will win São Tomé and Príncipe's 2026 presidential election, with a 25% chance of victory. The current assessment sits well below the 91-cent contract price, suggesting potential market fragmentation or disagreement about his viability as a candidate. Key drivers of this probability include Vila Nova's performance as incumbent, the strength of opposition candidates, and voter sentiment in this small island nation. The actual election date will ultimately resolve this uncertainty by revealing which candidate prevails in the voting. Market liquidity remains limited, with daily volumes under $25 across all related contracts, indicating sparse trader participation in these outcomes.
- ›The Vila Nova contract on Kalshi is priced at 91 cents while the aggregated probability for his victory sits at 25%, suggesting either mispricing or that the 25% figure may not accurately reflect market consensus from this specific contract
- ›Competing candidates Miques João Bonfim, Eugénio Tiny, and Nito D'Abreu all have minimal contract prices (3-4 cents), indicating very low individual probabilities despite the field being open
- ›Daily trading volume across all four contracts averages approximately $23, reflecting limited market liquidity and participation that may reduce prediction reliability
- ›The election date and campaign dynamics in São Tomé and Príncipe, a nation with roughly 230,000 residents, are subject to local political factors that may not be widely tracked in international prediction markets
- ›No clear frontrunner emerges from contract pricing alone, with Vila Nova as incumbent being distinct from challengers but the overall market fragmentation suggesting genuine uncertainty about the outcome
What moved the line
- Jul 19Eugénio Tiny↑4pp1→5¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in election 2026
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (5% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
Related reading
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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