Will the Republican National Committee's cash on hand be above 115000000 as of June 30, 2026
Leader sits at 95% across 7 bound outcomes, runner-up at 86%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 115 million
Outcomes
7
winner-take-all
Runner-up
86¢
Above 120 million
Spread
9pp
contested
24h volume
$8K
modest
Closes
Jul 20, 2026
27 days
Venue
Kalshi
7 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the Republican National Committee's cash on hand be above 1
Will the Republican National Committee's cash on hand be above 145000000 as of June 30, 2026?: Above 145 million
KXRNCCASH-26JUN30-A145000000
Will the Republican National Committee's cash on hand be above 115000000 as of June 30, 2026?: Above 115 million
KXRNCCASH-26JUN30-A115000000
Will the Republican National Committee's cash on hand be above 140000000 as of June 30, 2026?: Above 140 million
KXRNCCASH-26JUN30-A140000000
Will the Republican National Committee's cash on hand be above 135000000 as of June 30, 2026?: Above 135 million
KXRNCCASH-26JUN30-A135000000
Will the Republican National Committee's cash on hand be above 130000000 as of June 30, 2026?: Above 130 million
KXRNCCASH-26JUN30-A130000000
Will the Republican National Committee's cash on hand be above 120000000 as of June 30, 2026?: Above 120 million
KXRNCCASH-26JUN30-A120000000
Will the Republican National Committee's cash on hand be above 125000000 as of June 30, 2026?: Above 125 million
KXRNCCASH-26JUN30-A125000000
Analysis
This question measures the likelihood that the Republican National Committee will report cash on hand exceeding $115 million as of June 30, 2026. The 13% probability reflects market expectations that the RNC's available funds will fall below this threshold. RNC cash positions fluctuate based on fundraising cycles, spending on campaign infrastructure, and transfers to allied groups. The outcome will be determined by official FEC filings showing the RNC's June 30, 2026 cash-on-hand figure, typically released in early July. Current market pricing suggests traders expect the RNC to hold between $100-115 million by that date, with substantially lower probabilities assigned to higher thresholds ($120M, $125M+). Recent fundraising trends and scheduled spending plans leading into the general election will materially influence the final figure.
- ›RNC's June 30, 2026 cash-on-hand figure will be disclosed in FEC filings released in early July 2026, making this objectively verifiable
- ›The $115 million threshold sits between the lower ($100-115M) and higher ($120M+) outcomes priced in the market, suggesting baseline expectations near this level
- ›RNC spending patterns through mid-2026 on infrastructure, advertising, and field operations will directly reduce available cash from earlier fundraising
- ›Fundraising momentum and donor contributions between now and June 30 will add to or deplete available cash reserves
- ›The RNC's historical cash-on-hand levels and typical end-of-quarter positions provide context for whether $115M represents above or below average liquidity
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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