Will AfD win the 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 4% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
4%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$117
1 contracts
Closes
Sep 6, 2027
364 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will CDU win the 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election
Will CDU win the 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election?: CDU
KXSAXONYANHALT-26SEP06-CDU
Analysis
This 94% probability reflects the prediction market's assessment that the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party will secure the most seats in the Saxony-Anhalt state election scheduled for 2026. The high probability reflects the AfD's strong polling position in the eastern German state, where it has consistently ranked among top parties in recent surveys. The main factors supporting this level are the AfD's established voter base in the region and fragmentation among competing parties. Downward pressure could come from coalition dynamics, campaign shifts, or changes in voter sentiment before the election. The resolution will occur when official election results are announced, which will definitively show vote shares and seat distribution among all participating parties.
- ›AfD's polling average in Saxony-Anhalt leading into mid-2026 compared to other major parties (SPD, CDU, Greens, The Left)
- ›Current fragmentation of the non-AfD vote across multiple parties, which affects seat distribution under the German electoral system
- ›Historical volatility of state-level election results in eastern Germany relative to national trends in the 12 months preceding the vote
- ›Any significant shifts in coalition preferences or strategic voting patterns that could impact final seat allocation
- ›Official election results announcement date, which will resolve the contract based on which party wins the most seats
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (4% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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