Will Green Bay win the 2027 Pro Football Championship
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 5% across 13 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
5%
13 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$118K
13 contracts
Closes
Feb 13, 2029
1017 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
12 clusters across 13 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 10% of their title tokens — “Will Los Angeles” vs “Will Houston win the 2027 Pro Football Championship”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Los Angeles
Cluster 2
Will Houston win the 2027 Pro Football Championship
Will Houston win the 2027 Pro Football Championship?: Houston
KXSB-27-HOU
Cluster 3
Will San Francisco win the 2027 Pro Football Championship
Will San Francisco win the 2027 Pro Football Championship?: San Francisco
KXSB-27-SF
Cluster 4
Will Buffalo win the 2027 Pro Football Championship
Will Buffalo win the 2027 Pro Football Championship?: Buffalo
KXSB-27-BUF
Cluster 5
Will Dallas win the 2027 Pro Football Championship
Will Dallas win the 2027 Pro Football Championship?: Dallas
KXSB-27-DAL
Cluster 6
Will Chicago win the 2027 Pro Football Championship
Will Chicago win the 2027 Pro Football Championship?: Chicago
KXSB-27-CHI
Cluster 7
Will New England win the 2027 Pro Football Championship
Will New England win the 2027 Pro Football Championship?: New England
KXSB-27-NE
Cluster 8
Will Cincinnati win the 2027 Pro Football Championship
Will Cincinnati win the 2027 Pro Football Championship?: Cincinnati
KXSB-27-CIN
Cluster 9
Will Denver win the 2027 Pro Football Championship
Will Denver win the 2027 Pro Football Championship?: Denver
KXSB-27-DEN
Cluster 10
Will Green Bay win the 2027 Pro Football Championship
Will Green Bay win the 2027 Pro Football Championship?: Green Bay
KXSB-27-GB
Cluster 11
Will Detroit win the 2027 Pro Football Championship
Will Detroit win the 2027 Pro Football Championship?: Detroit
KXSB-27-DET
Cluster 12
Will Seattle win the 2027 Pro Football Championship
Will Seattle win the 2027 Pro Football Championship?: Seattle
KXSB-27-SEA
Analysis
This probability indicates that Green Bay has a 1-in-20 chance of winning the 2027 NFL championship. The 5% assessment reflects the Packers' current roster construction and recent performance relative to other NFL teams. Key factors pushing this probability would include quarterback durability and performance, the strength of the offensive line, and defensive depth heading into the 2026 season. The probability could shift substantially based on offseason moves, injuries during training camp, and early-season results. The 2026 NFL season (beginning September 2026) will provide concrete data on team performance and health, serving as the primary driver of probability updates. The Super Bowl LXI in early February 2027 represents the final resolution event for this contract.
- ›Green Bay's quarterback health and performance through the 2026 regular season will directly impact playoff qualification odds
- ›Offensive line strength and run-game effectiveness determine whether the team can execute consistently in high-leverage games
- ›Defensive pass-rush capability and secondary coverage consistency are critical metrics in January playoff conditions
- ›Divisional competition within the NFC North and playoff seeding implications affect championship probability independent of absolute team quality
- ›Early 2026 offseason acquisitions and draft picks will establish the roster composition that determines Super Bowl LVII viability
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 10 min ago.