SimpleFunctions
13 source contracts·Kalshi 13·refreshed just now·Closes Feb 13, 2029 · 918d

Will Green Bay win the 2027 Pro Football Championship

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 5% across 13 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

5%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

5%

13 contracts

Polymarket

not bound

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$322K

13 contracts

Closes

Feb 13, 2029

918 days

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 15% (24 days, 24 points)Aggregate: 15% on 2026-08-09
Aggregate of 13 contracts · 24d

Bracket families

12 clusters across 13 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters

The top two clusters share only 10% of their title tokens — “Will Los Angeles” vs “Will Houston win the 2027 Pro Football Championship”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.

Cluster 1

Will Los Angeles

2 contracts$59K

Cluster 2

Will Houston win the 2027 Pro Football Championship

1 contract$63K

Cluster 3

Will Dallas win the 2027 Pro Football Championship

1 contract$43K

Cluster 4

Will Philadelphia win the 2027 Pro Football Championship

1 contract$24K

Cluster 5

Will Buffalo win the 2027 Pro Football Championship

1 contract$24K

Cluster 6

Will Detroit win the 2027 Pro Football Championship

1 contract$23K

Cluster 7

Will Baltimore win the 2027 Pro Football Championship

1 contract$18K

Cluster 8

Will San Francisco win the 2027 Pro Football Championship

1 contract$16K

Cluster 9

Will Seattle win the 2027 Pro Football Championship

1 contract$16K

Cluster 10

Will Chicago win the 2027 Pro Football Championship

1 contract$14K

Cluster 11

Will Denver win the 2027 Pro Football Championship

1 contract$13K

Cluster 12

Will Cincinnati win the 2027 Pro Football Championship

1 contract$10K

Analysis

A 5% probability for Green Bay winning the 2027 NFL championship reflects a less than 1-in-20 chance based on current market pricing. This estimate sits below mid-tier contenders like Baltimore (5%) but well above long-shot teams like Houston (3%) and Philadelphia (4%). The probability reflects Green Bay's recent playoff performance, roster composition, and depth at critical positions relative to stronger favorites like Los Angeles (16%). Movements in this probability would likely stem from quarterback performance metrics, offensive line health, or defensive secondary effectiveness during the 2026 regular season. The outcome will be determined following the Super Bowl LXI conclusion in early February 2027, with regular season performance over the next 5-6 months serving as the primary uncertainty driver for current pricing.

  • Green Bay's current playoff seeding trajectory and strength-of-schedule remaining in the 2026 NFL regular season
  • Quarterback performance statistics (completion percentage, interception rate, QBR) relative to other AFC/NFC competitors
  • Key injury status of top-three offensive or defensive skill position players heading into the playoffs
  • Historical playoff win-rate patterns for teams with similar pre-playoff winning percentages and conference positioning
  • Volume and price movement on competing Super Bowl contenders, particularly Baltimore (5%) and Los Angeles (16%)

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

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