SimpleFunctions
13 contractsKalshirefreshed 10 min agoCloses Feb 13, 2029 · 1017d

Will Green Bay win the 2027 Pro Football Championship

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 5% across 13 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

5%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

5%

13 contracts

Polymarket

not bound

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$118K

13 contracts

Closes

Feb 13, 2029

1017 days

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 11% (25 days, 25 points)Aggregate: 11% on 2026-05-03
Aggregate of 13 contracts · 25d

Bracket families

12 clusters across 13 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters

The top two clusters share only 10% of their title tokens — “Will Los Angeles” vs “Will Houston win the 2027 Pro Football Championship”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.

Cluster 1

Will Los Angeles

2 contracts$10K

Cluster 2

Will Houston win the 2027 Pro Football Championship

1 contract$43K

Cluster 3

Will San Francisco win the 2027 Pro Football Championship

1 contract$20K

Cluster 4

Will Buffalo win the 2027 Pro Football Championship

1 contract$14K

Cluster 5

Will Dallas win the 2027 Pro Football Championship

1 contract$10K

Cluster 6

Will Chicago win the 2027 Pro Football Championship

1 contract$6K

Cluster 7

Will New England win the 2027 Pro Football Championship

1 contract$4K

Cluster 8

Will Cincinnati win the 2027 Pro Football Championship

1 contract$3K

Cluster 9

Will Denver win the 2027 Pro Football Championship

1 contract$3K

Cluster 10

Will Green Bay win the 2027 Pro Football Championship

1 contract$3K

Cluster 11

Will Detroit win the 2027 Pro Football Championship

1 contract$2K

Cluster 12

Will Seattle win the 2027 Pro Football Championship

1 contract$768

Analysis

This probability indicates that Green Bay has a 1-in-20 chance of winning the 2027 NFL championship. The 5% assessment reflects the Packers' current roster construction and recent performance relative to other NFL teams. Key factors pushing this probability would include quarterback durability and performance, the strength of the offensive line, and defensive depth heading into the 2026 season. The probability could shift substantially based on offseason moves, injuries during training camp, and early-season results. The 2026 NFL season (beginning September 2026) will provide concrete data on team performance and health, serving as the primary driver of probability updates. The Super Bowl LXI in early February 2027 represents the final resolution event for this contract.

  • Green Bay's quarterback health and performance through the 2026 regular season will directly impact playoff qualification odds
  • Offensive line strength and run-game effectiveness determine whether the team can execute consistently in high-leverage games
  • Defensive pass-rush capability and secondary coverage consistency are critical metrics in January playoff conditions
  • Divisional competition within the NFC North and playoff seeding implications affect championship probability independent of absolute team quality
  • Early 2026 offseason acquisitions and draft picks will establish the roster composition that determines Super Bowl LVII viability

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 10 min ago.