Will Starbucks Monthly Credit Card Spend for August 2026 be above 105

30-day trend

Analysis

The market is pricing roughly even odds that Starbucks' August 2026 credit card spending will exceed $105 million. The probability reflects uncertainty around consumer spending patterns during late summer, when promotional activity and seasonal traffic typically influence transaction volumes. Key drivers include back-to-school spending dynamics, summer travel patterns, and competitive promotional environments from rival chains. The resolution will depend on actual reported credit card transaction data for August 2026, typically released by payment processors or Starbucks in early September. The tight clustering of contract prices around 50-51 cents across multiple thresholds suggests the market sees the outcome as genuinely uncertain rather than favoring either outcome substantially.

• ›Starbucks' promotional calendar and pricing strategy for August 2026, particularly any limited-time offers or premium product launches
• ›Consumer discretionary spending patterns during late summer, influenced by employment levels and wage growth data through August
• ›Year-over-year comparison to August 2025 credit card volumes, which establishes the baseline for growth or decline assessment
• ›Competitive activity from other coffee chains and quick-service restaurants during the same period
• ›Attribution accuracy: whether reported figures isolate Starbucks-branded credit card transactions or include licensed locations and payment method variations

What moved the line

• Aug 7Above 103↓21pp53→32¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 7Above 103.5↓20pp48→28¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 7Above 102.5↓18pp55→37¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 7Above 104↓17pp43→26¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 7Above 101↓17pp61→44¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds