Will South Dakota's corn for grain yield per harvested acre for 2026 be above 165 bu/acre

30-day trend

Analysis

Markets are pricing a 21% chance that South Dakota's 2026 corn yield will exceed 165 bushels per acre, reflecting skepticism about achieving above-average yields. This outcome depends primarily on growing conditions during the critical summer months and whether the state avoids significant weather disruptions. South Dakota's five-year average yield stands around 160 bu/acre, so 165 bu/acre represents a modest step above trend. The main downside risks include drought, excessive rainfall, or pest pressure during July–August, while favorable conditions and effective crop management could push yields higher. The U.S. Department of Agriculture will release its final yield estimate in early December 2026, which will definitively settle this outcome. Until then, sentiment reflects widespread caution about yield prospects relative to historical performance.

• ›South Dakota's historical five-year corn yield average is approximately 160 bu/acre; exceeding 165 bu/acre represents a 3% gain above recent trend
• ›Summer 2026 precipitation and temperature patterns during July–August pollination and grain-fill stages are the primary drivers of final yield; drought or heat stress significantly reduces probability of meeting 165 bu/acre threshold
• ›The market prices much higher thresholds (170+ bu/acre) at only 11% or lower, indicating low confidence in exceptional yields; only 5–7% probability for 175+ bu/acre outcomes
• ›USDA will publish official yield data in early December 2026, at which point prediction markets will resolve based on South Dakota's reported corn for grain yield per harvested acre
• ›Current low volume and pricing suggest limited market participation, which may underweight emerging weather forecasts or late-season crop condition reports

What moved the line

• Aug 19Above 165 bu/acre↓8pp21→13¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 21Above 170 bu/acre↓8pp12→4¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 21Above 175 bu/acre↓4pp8→4¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 19Above 180 bu/acre↑3pp2→5¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds