SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all answer·7 source contracts·Kalshi 7·refreshed just now·Closes May 29, 2028 · 676d

How many consecutive regular season games will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander score 20+ points

Leader sits at 76% across 7 bound outcomes, runner-up at 63%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

76%

145+ consecutive games

runner-up 63¢leader 76¢

Outcomes

7

winner-take-all

Runner-up

63¢

155+ consecutive games

Spread

13pp

contested

24h volume

$0

thin orderbook

Closes

May 29, 2028

676 days

Venue

Kalshi

7 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtoday145+ consecutive games: 76% (26 days, 16 points)145+ consecutive games: 76% on 2026-07-23155+ consecutive games: 63% (26 days, 26 points)155+ consecutive games: 63% on 2026-07-23165+ consecutive games: 51% (26 days, 19 points)165+ consecutive games: 51% on 2026-07-22
145+ consecutive games76¢155+ consecutive games63¢165+ consecutive games51¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 26d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

This market is pricing the probability that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will score 20 or more points in a consecutive streak of regular season games at 14%, making it a long-shot outcome. The current probability reflects skepticism about SGA sustaining such a streak, likely driven by two factors: first, scoring 20+ in every consecutive game is exceptionally difficult even for elite players, and second, injuries, rest days, or natural offensive variation typically interrupt extended scoring streaks. The primary catalyst that would shift this probability is the start and progression of the 2026-27 NBA regular season, where real performance data will either validate or refute the streak as it develops. The exact contract definition—which specific streak length is being wagered on—critically determines whether this reflects a realistic assessment or underpricing of SGA's offensive consistency.

  • The specific streak length threshold (10, 20, 30+ games) is determinative; longer streaks are exponentially less likely than shorter ones
  • SGA's historical scoring consistency and injury history during the 2025-26 season; any offseason injuries or recovery issues would lower streak probability
  • NBA schedule factors including back-to-backs, rest management by coaching staff, and games against elite defenses that statistically reduce scoring output
  • Betting volume and contract structure; the 6% gap between top contract (14%) and runner-up (8%) suggests meaningful disagreement on streak likelihood
  • The 2026-27 regular season start date and SGA's opening performance will provide immediate empirical data to resolve early uncertainty

What moved the line

  • Jul 23155+ consecutive games7pp7063¢ · Kalshi
  • Jul 22145+ consecutive games3pp8279¢ · Kalshi
  • Jul 23145+ consecutive games3pp7976¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

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