Will Shopify Inc. report Above $116 billion gross merchandise volume in Q2 2026
Leader sits at 92% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 84%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above $108 billion
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
84¢
Above $112 billion
Spread
8pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Sep 4, 2026
72 days
Venue
Kalshi
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Shopify Inc. report Above $1
Will Shopify Inc. report Above $108 billion gross merchandise volume in Q2 2026?: Above $108 billion
KXSHOP-26AUGGMV-108000000000
Will Shopify Inc. report Above $124 billion gross merchandise volume in Q2 2026?: Above $124 billion
KXSHOP-26AUGGMV-124000000000
Will Shopify Inc. report Above $120 billion gross merchandise volume in Q2 2026?: Above $120 billion
KXSHOP-26AUGGMV-120000000000
Will Shopify Inc. report Above $116 billion gross merchandise volume in Q2 2026?: Above $116 billion
KXSHOP-26AUGGMV-116000000000
Will Shopify Inc. report Above $112 billion gross merchandise volume in Q2 2026?: Above $112 billion
KXSHOP-26AUGGMV-112000000000
Analysis
This market assesses the likelihood that Shopify will report gross merchandise volume (GMV) exceeding $116 billion in Q2 2026. The 61% probability suggests traders view this threshold as more uncertain than the $108 billion baseline (93% likely), reflecting questions about growth acceleration in the second quarter. GMV depends on both merchant sales volume on the platform and currency movements, particularly USD strength against the Canadian dollar. The primary driver of this probability is Shopify's historical growth trajectory and current merchant base size relative to the threshold. Resolution occurs upon Shopify's official Q2 2026 earnings report, typically released in late July or early August. Key uncertainties include e-commerce spending patterns during spring/summer months, macroeconomic conditions affecting consumer purchasing, and competitive dynamics in the platform space.
- ›Shopify's trailing twelve-month GMV trend as of Q1 2026 and the incremental growth rate needed to reach $116B in Q2 specifically
- ›Seasonal strength of e-commerce activity in Q2 (spring retail period) compared to historical quarterly averages
- ›Merchant acquisition and retention rates on the platform, which directly determine transaction volume capacity
- ›Foreign exchange headwinds or tailwinds, particularly USD/CAD movements that can affect reported GMV figures
- ›Macroeconomic consumer spending data and retail sales momentum in Shopify's primary markets during the April-June 2026 period
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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