Will Snap Inc. report Above 480 million global daily active users in Q2 2026

30-day trend

Analysis

Markets currently assess an 88% probability that Snap will report at least 480 million global daily active users in Q2 2026. This reflects confidence in Snap's recent user growth trajectory, though the tighter clustering of contracts at 484M (68%) and 488M (41%) suggests meaningful uncertainty about whether growth extends beyond the 480M threshold. The primary driver of the high probability is Snap's consistent user expansion over recent quarters; downside risks include potential slowdown in mature markets or shifts in user engagement. Resolution occurs when Snap releases its Q2 2026 earnings report, typically in late July or early August, which will provide official DAU figures. The gap between the 88% and 68% contracts (a 20-percentage-point spread) indicates the market sees 480M as achievable but 484M as materially less certain.

• ›Snap's DAU growth rate in recent quarters and whether it has maintained or accelerated momentum through Q2 2026
• ›Geographic distribution of user growth, particularly whether gains in emerging markets offset any deceleration in North America and Europe
• ›Competitive pressure from TikTok, Instagram Reels, and other platforms, and their impact on Snap's ability to retain and grow its user base
• ›The specific DAU figure Snap reports in Q2 2026 earnings (official resolution date typically late July/early August), which determines all contract payouts
• ›Historical variance between analyst estimates and Snap's actual reported DAU to calibrate forecast reliability

What moved the line

• Aug 5Above 496 million↓8pp50→42¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 5Above 490 million↓7pp83→76¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 2Above 502 million↑6pp12→18¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 3Above 492 million↑5pp71→76¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 5Above 492 million↓5pp80→75¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds