Will Snap Inc. report Above 480 million global daily active users in Q2 2026
Leader sits at 93% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 83%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 480 million
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
83¢
Above 484 million
Spread
10pp
contested
24h volume
$38
thin orderbook
Closes
Sep 3, 2026
69 days
Venue
Kalshi
6 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Snap Inc. report Above
Will Snap Inc. report Above 488 million global daily active users in Q2 2026?: Above 488 million
KXSNAP-26AUGDAU-488000000
Will Snap Inc. report Above 492 million global daily active users in Q2 2026?: Above 492 million
KXSNAP-26AUGDAU-492000000
Will Snap Inc. report Above 500 million global daily active users in Q2 2026?: Above 500 million
KXSNAP-26AUGDAU-500000000
Will Snap Inc. report Above 496 million global daily active users in Q2 2026?: Above 496 million
KXSNAP-26AUGDAU-496000000
Will Snap Inc. report Above 484 million global daily active users in Q2 2026?: Above 484 million
KXSNAP-26AUGDAU-484000000
Will Snap Inc. report Above 480 million global daily active users in Q2 2026?: Above 480 million
KXSNAP-26AUGDAU-480000000
Analysis
Markets currently assess an 88% probability that Snap will report at least 480 million global daily active users in Q2 2026. This reflects confidence in Snap's recent user growth trajectory, though the tighter clustering of contracts at 484M (68%) and 488M (41%) suggests meaningful uncertainty about whether growth extends beyond the 480M threshold. The primary driver of the high probability is Snap's consistent user expansion over recent quarters; downside risks include potential slowdown in mature markets or shifts in user engagement. Resolution occurs when Snap releases its Q2 2026 earnings report, typically in late July or early August, which will provide official DAU figures. The gap between the 88% and 68% contracts (a 20-percentage-point spread) indicates the market sees 480M as achievable but 484M as materially less certain.
- ›Snap's DAU growth rate in recent quarters and whether it has maintained or accelerated momentum through Q2 2026
- ›Geographic distribution of user growth, particularly whether gains in emerging markets offset any deceleration in North America and Europe
- ›Competitive pressure from TikTok, Instagram Reels, and other platforms, and their impact on Snap's ability to retain and grow its user base
- ›The specific DAU figure Snap reports in Q2 2026 earnings (official resolution date typically late July/early August), which determines all contract payouts
- ›Historical variance between analyst estimates and Snap's actual reported DAU to calibrate forecast reliability
What moved the line
- Jun 26Above 488 million↑4pp55→59¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 25Above 488 million↑3pp52→55¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 26Above 492 million↑3pp28→31¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 21Above 484 million↓3pp84→81¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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