Will Social Security be cut?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 8% across 2 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
8%
2 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$5
2 contracts
Closes
Jan 4, 2027
211 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 2 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 13% of their title tokens — “Will a bill that restricts SNAP benefits become law before Jan 4, 2027” vs “US bans social media for children before 2027”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will a bill that restricts SNAP benefits become law before Jan 4, 2027
Will a bill that restricts SNAP benefits become law before Jan 4, 2027?: Before Jan 4, 2027
KXSNAPRESTRICT-27-JAN04
Cluster 2
US bans social media for children before 2027
US bans social media for children before 2027?: Yes
KXSOCIALMEDIABAN-27JAN01
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (8% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In legislation
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.