Will Rachel Reeves be out as Chancellor before July 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 19% across 7 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
19%
7 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$2K
7 contracts
Closes
Jul 1, 2026
53 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
7 clusters across 7 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Pat McFadden be out as Work and Pensions Secretary before July 2026
Will Pat McFadden be out as Work and Pensions Secretary before July 2026?: Pat McFadden
KXSTARMERCABLEAVE-26MAY-PMCF
Cluster 2
Will Ed Miliband be out as Energy Secretary before July 2026
Will Ed Miliband be out as Energy Secretary before July 2026?: Ed Miliband
KXSTARMERCABLEAVE-26MAY-EMIL
Cluster 3
Will Jonathan Reynolds be out as Chief Whip before July 2026
Will Jonathan Reynolds be out as Chief Whip before July 2026?: Jonathan Reynolds
KXSTARMERCABLEAVE-26MAY-JREY
Cluster 4
Will Shabana Mahmood be out as Home Secretary before July 2026
Will Shabana Mahmood be out as Home Secretary before July 2026?: Shabana Mahmood
KXSTARMERCABLEAVE-26MAY-SMAH
Cluster 5
Will Rachel Reeves be out as Chancellor before July 2026
Will Rachel Reeves be out as Chancellor before July 2026?: Rachel Reeves
KXSTARMERCABLEAVE-26MAY-RREE
Cluster 6
Will Wes Streeting be out as Health Secretary before July 2026
Will Wes Streeting be out as Health Secretary before July 2026?: Wes Streeting
KXSTARMERCABLEAVE-26MAY-WSTR
Cluster 7
Will David Lammy be out as Deputy PM before July 2026
Will David Lammy be out as Deputy PM before July 2026?: David Lammy
KXSTARMERCABLEAVE-26MAY-DLAM
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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