Will there be more than 260 transit calls through the Suez Canal from Jul 27, 2026 to Aug 2, 2026
Leader sits at 80% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 70%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 260
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
70¢
Above 270
Spread
10pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Aug 11, 2026
7 days
Venue
Kalshi
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will there be more than
Will there be more than 260 transit calls through the Suez Canal from Aug 3, 2026 to Aug 9, 2026?: Above 260
KXSUEZWEEKLY-26AUG09-T260
Will there be more than 300 transit calls through the Suez Canal from Aug 3, 2026 to Aug 9, 2026?: Above 300
KXSUEZWEEKLY-26AUG09-T300
Will there be more than 290 transit calls through the Suez Canal from Aug 3, 2026 to Aug 9, 2026?: Above 290
KXSUEZWEEKLY-26AUG09-T290
Will there be more than 280 transit calls through the Suez Canal from Aug 3, 2026 to Aug 9, 2026?: Above 280
KXSUEZWEEKLY-26AUG09-T280
Will there be more than 270 transit calls through the Suez Canal from Aug 3, 2026 to Aug 9, 2026?: Above 270
KXSUEZWEEKLY-26AUG09-T270
Analysis
This contract estimates an 86% probability that the Suez Canal will record more than 260 transit calls between July 27 and August 2, 2026. The Suez Canal is one of the world's most critical shipping chokepoints, and daily transit volumes fluctuate based on global trade patterns, seasonal demand, vessel scheduling, and any disruptions to canal operations. At this probability level, the market is pricing in a baseline expectation of normal to above-normal traffic flow for this seven-day window. The outcome will be finalized when official transit data is published by the Suez Canal Authority for the specified week. Key uncertainties include whether geopolitical events, weather conditions, or operational incidents disrupt passage, and whether summer shipping patterns align with historical norms or deviate significantly.
- ›Suez Canal Authority publishes daily transit counts; the market must wait for official data covering July 27–August 2, 2026 to resolve
- ›Seasonal summer shipping demand and vessel scheduling are major drivers of baseline traffic; sustained disruptions (attacks, blockages, or canal closures) would push counts lower
- ›The spread between 260 (86¢), 270 (74¢), and 280 (64¢) contracts suggests market uncertainty about the magnitude above 260, indicating traders believe the outcome is likely but the exact volume is uncertain
- ›Historical Suez Canal transit averages typically range 40–50 transits per day; 260 in seven days equals ~37 per day, which is plausible but would require verification against recent actuals
- ›No scheduled maintenance or announced force majeure events are priced in at this probability; any new disruption announcement would lower the probability materially
What moved the line
- Aug 2Above 290↑23pp13→36¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 2Above 280↑22pp35→57¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 2Above 260↑21pp59→80¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 2Above 270↑20pp50→70¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 2Above 300↑11pp7→18¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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