Swansea City AFC vs. Charlton Athletic FC
Leader sits at 33% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 11%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Kansas City
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
11¢
Kansas City
Spread
22pp
contested
24h volume
$782
thin orderbook
Closes
Feb 22, 2027
202 days
Venue
Kalshi
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Kansas City win the Pro Football AFC
Analysis
This 33% probability indicates traders assess Kansas City has roughly one-in-three odds of winning the AFC West division in the upcoming NFL season. The price reflects Kansas City's recent playoff success and roster strength against division rivals including Denver, Las Vegas, and Los Angeles Chargers. The probability would likely move higher if Kansas City makes significant offseason acquisitions or if key division competitors suffer injuries to star players; it would decline if Kansas City experiences quarterback or defensive decline. The primary resolution catalyst is the start of the 2026 NFL regular season, when on-field performance will replace speculation about team construction and health. Trading volume remains modest, suggesting limited market attention at this stage of the offseason.
- ›Kansas City's recent championship history and playoff performance trajectory versus historical division win rates
- ›Offseason roster moves by Kansas City and competing division teams (free agency signings, draft picks, trades) through August
- ›Injury status of key players, particularly Kansas City quarterbacks and pass defenders, leading into the regular season
- ›Vegas betting lines and sportsbook divisional odds as independent validation of the 33% estimate
- ›Head-to-head record and strength-of-schedule metrics for Kansas City against specific AFC West rivals across the 2026 season
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (33% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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