Where will Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce’s Wedding occur
Leader sits at 81% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 19%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
New York
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
19¢
Rhode Island
Spread
62pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$75K
liquid
Closes
Jan 1, 2030
1286 days
Venue
Kalshi
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Where will Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce’s Wedding occur
Where will Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce’s Wedding occur?: New York
KXSWIFTKELCEWEDDINGLOCATION-30-NEW
Where will Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce’s Wedding occur?: Rhode Island
KXSWIFTKELCEWEDDINGLOCATION-30-RHO
Where will Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce’s Wedding occur?: Pennsylvania
KXSWIFTKELCEWEDDINGLOCATION-30-PEN
Where will Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce’s Wedding occur?: Tennessee
KXSWIFTKELCEWEDDINGLOCATION-30-TEN
Analysis
This probability reflects market participants' belief that if Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce marry, the wedding will take place in New York rather than Rhode Island or other locations. The 70% reading for New York follows earlier reporting about venue preferences and Swift's established connections to the city, though no formal announcement has been made. Market confidence in a 2026 wedding itself stands at 76%, suggesting most traders believe marriage is likely this year regardless of location. The probability would shift based on any public statements from the couple, confirmed venue bookings, or reporting about alternative locations. Uncertainty will persist until either an official engagement announcement occurs or the year closes without a wedding, at which point the market resolves and reallocates to later years.
- ›The 76% probability for a 2026 wedding provides a floor—location markets only matter if marriage occurs this year
- ›New York contracts trade at 64¢ on Kalshi while Rhode Island trades at 29¢, showing traders favor the city venue by roughly 2.2-to-1 odds
- ›High-volume bridesmaid and groomsman contracts (Patrick Mahomes at 80¢) suggest wedding planning signals are being publicly discussed and priced
- ›No official engagement, venue confirmation, or wedding date has been announced as of May 2026
- ›Wedding venue selection typically becomes public 6-12 months before the event, suggesting resolution clarity would arrive in late 2026 if a wedding is scheduled for 2027
What moved the line
- Jun 21New York↑11pp64→75¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 19Rhode Island↑11pp22→33¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 19New York↓9pp77→68¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 21Rhode Island↓9pp36→27¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 18Rhode Island↑8pp14→22¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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