Will Toll Brothers, Inc. report above 2350 Delivered Homes in Q2 2026
Leader sits at 76% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 45%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 2600
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
45¢
Above 2700
Spread
31pp
contested
24h volume
$50
thin orderbook
Closes
Sep 17, 2026
84 days
Venue
Kalshi
6 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Toll Brothers Inc. report Above
Will Toll Brothers Inc. report Above 2600 deliveries in Q3 2026?: Above 2600
KXTOL-26AUGDELIV-2600
Will Toll Brothers Inc. report Above 3100 deliveries in Q3 2026?: Above 3100
KXTOL-26AUGDELIV-3100
Will Toll Brothers Inc. report Above 3000 deliveries in Q3 2026?: Above 3000
KXTOL-26AUGDELIV-3000
Will Toll Brothers Inc. report Above 2900 deliveries in Q3 2026?: Above 2900
KXTOL-26AUGDELIV-2900
Will Toll Brothers Inc. report Above 2800 deliveries in Q3 2026?: Above 2800
KXTOL-26AUGDELIV-2800
Will Toll Brothers Inc. report Above 2700 deliveries in Q3 2026?: Above 2700
KXTOL-26AUGDELIV-2700
Analysis
This market prices the likelihood that Toll Brothers will deliver more than 2,350 homes in the second quarter of 2026 at 87%, suggesting strong confidence in the company's delivery pace. The high probability reflects Toll Brothers' recent performance as a major homebuilder and relatively stable operational output. However, the spread across contracts—where above-2,550 homes trades at only 38%—indicates uncertainty about the upper end of delivery potential. The primary resolution driver is Toll Brothers' Q2 2026 earnings release, typically occurring in August 2026, which will report actual delivered units. Key factors influencing this outcome include current order backlogs, construction cycle timing, labor availability, supply chain constraints, and broader housing market demand. The large gap between the base threshold (2,350) and higher tiers suggests markets expect solid but not exceptional delivery performance.
- ›Toll Brothers' trailing twelve-month delivery pace and current backlog conversion rates
- ›Housing starts and mortgage rate environment through Q2 2026, which affect demand and construction timelines
- ›Labor availability and supply chain conditions for building materials during the quarter
- ›Actual reported delivered units when Q2 2026 earnings are released, typically in August 2026
- ›Comparison to Toll Brothers' historical quarterly delivery volumes and recent guidance
What moved the line
- Jun 18Above 2600↓3pp79→76¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Will Claire Valdez be victorious in the NY-07 Democratic primary AND Brad Lander be victorious in the NY-10 Democratic primary AND Darializa Avila Chevalier be defeated in the NY-13 Democratic primary for Sep 2026last 69% · 0d
- Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be victorious in the NY-13 Democratic primary AND Alex Bores be defeated in the NY-12 Democratic primary for Sep 2026last 37% · 1d
- Who will win the 2026 D.C. Democratic Mayoral Primarylast 97% · 6d
- Louisiana Democratic Senate Primary Winnerlast 89% · 6d
- Will Databricks' valuation hit __ by December 31?: ↑$180Blast 94% · 6d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.